Week 17 NFL Trend Report: Dallas Destined to Stop the Bleeding

Proceed with caution, my friends!

What am I talking about? Well, be careful with buying into too many end-of-season narratives and applying them to your game analysis for your NFL picks

Yes, we all know that a handful of teams have nothing to play for because they’re eliminated from the playoffs. We all know there’s a handful of head coaches who’ll be fired at season’s end. We all know there are a lot of teams who will be extra motivated to win over the next two weeks… you know who else knows this – the oddsmakers!

It’s also important to keep in mind that all those players and coaches on losing teams do have plenty to play for. Many players will be looking to make a strong final impression ahead of free agency. Lots of coaches are fighting to keep their jobs or to land a promotion. A lot of these guys are also hyper-competitive people who have no interest in laying down for a superior team with the offseason right around the corner.

Will some teams/players/coaches simply mail it in? Probably, but it’s a true guessing game trying to figure that out.

Week 17 from last season, for example, saw results such as the 49ers barely squeaking by the Raiders as a 10-point NFL odds favorite, while the Chiefs needed a fourth-quarter surge to beat the Broncos by three in a game where KC was favored by 12.5. Even last week’s results had the three teams that were double-digit underdogs all cover the spread.

The point is, don’t put all your eggs into one basket betting on the “nothing to play for” narratives. Perhaps consider taking your foot off the gas just a little bit with the playoffs fast approaching.

Best of luck in Week 17. Now let’s get started on breaking down some NFL betting trends! 

Best NFL Week 17 betting trends

Jets vs Broncos

The trend: The Browns have gone Over their team total in 11 of their 15 games

This is one of the more surprising betting results of the season when you consider that the Cleveland Browns are on their fourth starting quarterback of the season. The New York Jets’ defense is regarded as a strong one, but they have been lit up a handful of times this season as they’ve allowed six opponents to score 27 or more points. Cleveland’s team total for this game is 20.5. 

See all Jets vs Broncos trends for Week 17.

Lions vs Cowboys

The trend: Dallas has gone Over its team total in all seven of its home games

What a tear the Dallas Cowboys are on at home where they’ve averaged a league-high 39.9 points per game, with no fewer than 30 points scored. Everything for the game points to the Over as the Detroit Lions have been lights-out when playing inside (seven home games + games at LAC, NO, MIN) where they’ve averaged 31.8. Dallas’ team total is 30.5, Detroit’s is 23.5, and the full-game total is 53.5.

See all Lions vs Cowboys trends for Week 17.

Falcons vs Bears

The trend: The Falcons are an NFL-worst 5-13-1 ATS following a win since the start of the 2021 season

2021 is significant because that’s when Arthur Smith took over head coaching duties for the Atlanta Falcons. They’ve been horrible in this spot this season, going 1-5 ATS. You can grab the Chicago Bears at -3 if you think the trend continues. 

See all Falcons vs Bears trends for Week 17.

Panthers vs Jaguars

The trend: The Jaguars are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite

You might want to pump the breaks before throwing the reeling Jacksonville Jaguars into a teaser or moneyline parlay this week as they’ve also been an outright loser in 11 of these games! While the Carolina Panthers have been a joke this season, they’ve been doing enough to hang around in games lately. Carolina is available at +7.

See all Panthers vs Jaguars trends for Week 17.

Rams vs Giants

The trend: The Rams are 18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 games played in December

Good teams peak at the right time and the Los Angeles Rams are doing some serious peaking right now which includes going 4-0 ATS this month with 28 or more points scored in each game. They’re favored by six in this game and are on a tear that’s seen them go 12-2-1 ATS as a favorite in December.

See all Rams vs Giants trends for Week 17.

Cardinals vs Eagles

The trend: These teams are a combined 20-8-2 to the Over on the first half total

Each of these defenses is getting off to rough starts as the Arizona Cardinals rank 31st in first-half points allowed while the Philadelphia Eagles are 23rd. Both defenses are among the worst in the league on third down which should result in extended drives that lead to points. The first-half total for the game is 23.5.

See all Cardinals vs Eagles trends for Week 17.

Saints vs Buccaneers

The trend: New Orleans is 4-10-1 ATS this season

This is a pretty straightforward trend that reveals we probably shouldn’t take the New Orleans Saints very seriously when you consider who three of the four covers came against – the Giants, Panthers, and Patriots. They simply haven’t been able to hang with good competition this season and Tampa Bay is coming in hot with four straight wins. The Bucs are favored by three. 

See all Saints vs Buccaneers trends for Week 17.

Patriots vs Bills

The trend: The Bills are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a double-digit favorite

Buffalo’s tendency to play down to the competition was on full display last week when they barely squeaked out a win as a 12.5-point favorite against the Chargers. That was the fourth time this season they failed to cover the spread when favored by double-digits. If you’re interested in backing the New England Patriots in this game, you can get them at +12. 

See all Patriots vs Bills trends for Week 17.

49ers vs Commanders

The trend: The 49ers have eight wins by 16 or more points this season

This seems relevant with the San Francisco 49ers as the biggest favorite of the week at -13.5. San Francisco will be looking to bounce back and their offense should be able to light up a Washington Commanders defense that allows 34.5 points per game at home. The 49ers beat Washington 37-20 in a game last season.

See all 49ers vs Commanders trends for Week 17.

Dolphins vs Ravens

The trend: Baltimore is a league-best 12-3 ATS in the first half

It’s been one of the hottest bets of the season thanks to the Baltimore Ravens allowing a league-low 6.6 first-half points per game. Miami’s defense has struggled in first halves on the road where they rank 26th in first-half points allowed with 14.6. Baltimore is available on the first-half spread at -1.5.

See all Dolphins vs Ravens trends for Week 17.

Titans vs Texans

The trend: The Titans have gone Under their team total in six of seven road games

The game they didn’t go Under? That came in Miami where they scored 28 points but let’s keep in mind that they only had 13 points with about three minutes remaining in the game. They only managed to score 16 points at home against the Houston Texans two weeks ago. Their team total for this game is 19.5.

See all Titans vs Texans trends for Week 17.

Raiders vs Colts

The trend: The Raiders have gone Under the 2nd half total in 12 of their 15 games

It’s been a weird stretch of games for the Las Vegas Raiders offense but one constant has been going Under the second half total. They’re dead-last in points scored in the second half while their defense is fifth in second-half points allowed on the road. The second-half total for this game is 21.5.

See all Raiders vs Colts trends for Week 17.

Steelers vs Seahawks

The trend: The Steelers have gone Under the second-half total in 12 of their 15 games

Pittsburgh's second halves this season have seen an average combined score of just 16.7  points! This spot has been especially hot on the road for the Steelers as it’s hit in five of six games. The second-half total for this game is 20.5 points. 

See all Steelers vs Seahawks trends for Week 17.

Chargers vs Broncos

The trend: The Broncos are 3-12-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season

In this week’s “Nobody Cares Expect for Bettors Bowl,” the Los Angeles Chargers will look to take advantage of a Denver Broncos team that’s been playing down to the competition for most of the past two seasons. Los Angeles had a great effort as a big underdog against the Bills last week and will look to carry that momentum into this game as a three-point underdog.

See all Chargers vs Broncos trends for Week 17.

Bengals vs Chiefs

The trend: The Chiefs have gone Under in seven of eight home games this season

Kansas City Chiefs home games this season have had an average combined score of just 39.4 thanks to a strong defense and a disappointing offense. There’s not much to like about the Cincinnati Bengals' defense, but the same thing could have been said about the Raiders' defense last week and the Cheifs managed to score just 14 points. This game has a total of 44. 

See all Bengals vs Chiefs trends for Week 17.

Packers vs Vikings

The trend: The Vikings have gone Under the fourth quarter total in all seven of their games this season

Minnesota Vikings home games have seen an average of just 9.3 combined fourth-quarter points this season. Interestingly enough, when these teams met earlier in the season, they combined for zero fourth-quarter points. The fourth-quarter total for this game is 13.5. 

See all Packers vs Vikings trends for Week 17.

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