NFL Week 17 Bet Now, Bet Later: Falcons Hold Value in the Windy City

What do we do when we don’t get what we want for Christmas? We go out shopping for ourselves.

And depending on what your tastes are for the latest NFL odds, you can go out shopping for the best spreads and totals that fit those needs. That means jumping on some of the opening numbers now and waiting for other lines to move later.

I highlight some value shopping in my weekly “Bet Now, Bet Later” lines for Week 17 odds.

Week 17 bet now, bet later picks

• Falcons (+3) at Bears: Bet Now
• Lions (+6) at Cowboys: Bet Later
• Bengals at Chiefs (Under 45.5): Bet Now
• Saints at Buccaneers (Under 42.5): Bet Later

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) at Chicago Bears: Bet Now

The Atlanta Falcons stayed in the hunt for the NFC South with a big win over the Colts in Week 16 and now travel to the Windy City for a must-win matchup with the Chicago Bears.

The playoff odds aren’t great for Atlanta, which has a 12% shot of making the postseason cut via either the division or NFC Wild Card. But the support is there for the Falcons, who drew strong support from sharp bettors versus Indianapolis and appear to making a move with their Week 17 spread.

Most books are currently dealing Atlanta +3, but that key number is drawing extra vig as high as -120 and some spots have already dipped below a field goal to Bears -2.5.

The Falcons posted a 29-10 win over the Colts but left many points on the table, finishing the day 0-for-3 in the red zone and settling for five total field goals. However, the move back to QB Taylor Heinicke did kickstart the offense, with Atlanta posting more than 400 total yards on offense.

If you think there’s some fight left in the Falcons, bet them now before all the +3 spreads dry up.

Best odds to bet Falcons +3 right now

Detroit Lions (+6) at Dallas Cowboys: Bet Later

There’s definitely a case to be made for betting against the Detroit Lions in Week 17.

Detroit is ripe for a letdown after securing the NFC North title this past weekend with a t-shirt and champagne game. The Lions now hit the road for a Saturday showcase in Arlington, taking on a Dallas Cowboys team that plays its best ball inside AT&T Stadium.

This spread opened as low as Dallas -5 on Xmas Eve and quickly leaped to the key number of -6. As of Monday night, there are Detroit +6.5 spreads showing up at select sportsbooks.

The Lions’ remaining games will have zero impact on their postseason standing, which leads us to question if Detroit will protect its starters in these final contests. That, however, isn’t Dan Campbell’s style.

“When we're done with the season, they'll get some rest,” the Lions’ head coach told the media when asked about resting his first-teamers before the playoffs.

The Cowboys are in the middle of the postseason shuffle, having already punched their ticket to the playoffs. A divisional title is a long shot but Dallas is bouncing around the Wild Card seeding.

With likely more money fading the Lions in this letdown spot, hold off and make sure you get the +6.5 if you’re getting down on Detroit or maybe even a +7 by the time Saturday shows up.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (Under 45.5): Bet Now

WTF was that Kansas City?

The Chiefs handed their backers a sock full of coal on Christmas Day, getting outdone by the Las Vegas Raiders defense in a 20-14 loss as 11-point home chalk.

While we have to give some credit to Las Vegas, this KC attack hasn’t been right for a while. Kansas City has slouched all the way to No. 9 in EPA per play on the season and ranks 17th in that advanced metric since Week 8.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals finished with only 11 points in the loss to Pittsburgh in Week 16, with Jake Browning finally coming apart. He threw three interceptions and flopped with a 0-for-3 night in the red zone against the Steelers defense.

The Chiefs stop unit has been the glue during this off-time for the offense. Kansas City has held nine of its last 11 foes to 21 points or less and is 3-8 Over/Under in that span, including staying below the total in five straight home games.

This should be a well-oiled and pissed-off Arrowhead crowd on New Year’s Eve that will be drowning out Browning at the line of scrimmage. The extended forecast calls for temperatures below freezing with winds up to 15 mph.

The total hit the board at 45.5 points and has trended downward with early play on the Under. If you agree with that move, grab the tallest total you can find and bet the Under now.

Best odds to bet Under 45.5 right now

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 42.5): Bet Later

Boy, the NFC South is weird.

The New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have both gone from offensive ineptitude to point-producing powerhouses in the past month.

New Orleans has posted tallies of 28, 28, 24, and 22 in the last four games. That may not seem like much, but look at the outputs NOLA had before this surge.

Tampa Bay has followed a similar path. The Buccaneers went from averaging less than 20 points per game in the first dozen weeks to boasting scores of 21, 29, 34, and 30 in the past four showings.

Add it all up and you have an opening total of 41.5 points climb as high as 42.5 in the past 24 hours.

That’s just a point higher than the closing total of their Week 4 matchup, which Tampa Bay took 29-6 inside the fast track of the Superdome back in October, staying Under that total. This week’s meeting is outside at Raymond James Stadium.

These NFC South foes are locked in a battle atop the division, so this New Year’s Eve party will have a playoff-like atmosphere between two teams that know each other well. Both defenses also rank Top 10 in red zone TD percentage allowed.

In fact, the Saints and Bucs have stayed Under the total in four straight matchups and six of their last seven head-to-head battles. If you’re not buying into their sudden scoring success, let this total tick up before buying back the Under a little later.

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