Week 17 NFL Parlay Picks: A Trio of Totals Plus a Worthy Underdog

The first NFL games of 2023 will take place on New Year’s Day, with a full slate of 14 contests. Plus, we have an outstanding Monday Night Football matchup to look forward to on Jan. 2, as the Buffalo Bills visit the Cincinnati Bengals.

I’ve managed to narrow things down to four strong sides, which will be divided into two parlay plays. Without further ado, here are my recommended NFL parlay picks for Week 17.

Week 17 NFL parlay picks

• Bears/Lions Over 52 + Vikings +3.5 = +257
• Rams/Chargers Under 43 + Bills/Bengals Under 49.5 = +264

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Parlay Pick 1

PARLAY: Bears/Lions Over 52 (-110) + Vikings +3.5 (-115) = +257 at Caesars

Bears/Lions Over 52 (-110)

When the Bears and the Lions got together in Week 10 at Soldier Field, it was a memorable 31-30 shootout in favor of the visitors. We’ll see if Detroit is able to cover a fairly lofty spread at home, but there’s little doubt that this game will be another high-scoring affair. 

Chicago has exceeded the total in eight of its last nine games overall, even as its offensive production has slowed down. The Bears have failed to exceed 20 points in three straight games since Justin Fields rejoined the lineup. His 130 all-purpose yards in a 35-13 loss to the Bills on Christmas Eve was his lowest output since Week 2. 

But the Bears defense has been abysmal for much of 2022, ranking 31st in points allowed per game at 26.2. The Lions have reached at least 23 points in six of their last seven overall, thanks mainly to the exploits of Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Goff hasn’t thrown an interception in seven weeks, and St. Brown just crossed the 1,000-yard receiving plateau in Week 16.

However, the only team worse than the Bears defensively has been Detroit, which has surrendered 26.7 points per game. If these stoppers are true to form on New Year’s Day, this one will feature points aplenty. 

Vikings +3.5 (-115)

The wrong team appears to be favored in the other battle between NFC North teams in Week 17, with the 12-3 Vikings catching 3.5 points at Lambeau Field against the 7-8 Packers. Bettors should act accordingly.

There’s no sugar-coating how bad the Minnesota defense has been (31st by yards allowed per game), but the offense is more than capable of picking up the slack. Kirk Cousins is up to fifth in passing yards (4,117) and fourth in passing touchdowns (27), as he’s been linking up with Justin Jefferson almost at will lately. Jefferson has recorded double-digit receptions and triple-digit receiving yards in each of his last three games, accounting for two touchdowns in the process. 

Jefferson burned the Green Bay defense for nine catches, 184 yards, and two TDs when these teams met in Week 1. But the key to success for the Vikings could be establishing the run with Dalvin Cook. He ranks sixth in rushing yards this season (1,109) and takes on a Packers defense that’s 27th in rushing yards allowed per game (144.4). 

Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay may have won three in a row, but bettors should take that streak with a grain of salt, as they beat some bad squads in the Bears and the Rams before handing the slumping Dolphins a loss on Christmas Day.

Parlay Pick 2

PARLAY: Rams/Chargers Under 43 (-110) + Bills/Bengals Under 49.5 (-110) = +264 at BetMGM

Rams/Chargers Under 43 (-110)

The battle of Los Angeles could turn out to be a snoozer this Sunday.

The Chargers were built to be an offensive dynamo, but their defense has been what’s carried them to a three-game winning streak. They held the Dolphins, Titans, and Colts each to fewer than 300 total yards of offense in that span, recorded 13 total sacks, and forced four turnovers. The Rams’ 51-point outburst against the Broncos last week notwithstanding, this is an offense that’s struggled mightily to move the chains this year, and they rank 26th in points per game (18.7). 

Justin Herbert has thrown just one touchdown pass for the Bolts over the last three weeks despite the return of both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen to the lineup. His mysterious slip in production has helped see the Chargers fall to 20 points per game over their last three tilts. The Rams have held opposing passers to fewer than 220 yards in three straight contests. 

Trend bettors should note that the Rams have gone below the total in five of their last six games following a straight-up win, while the Under has cashed in each of the Chargers’ last four overall.

Bills/Bengals Under 49.5 (-110)

Picking a winner in the Bills/Bengals Monday night showdown is a tough task, as Buffalo has won six in a row, while Cincinnati has triumphed in seven straight. While the focus is generally on the offense of each of these two teams, specifically quarterbacks Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, their respective defenses continue to get overlooked. This contest should not turn into a track meet.

Establishing the run could prove difficult for each club, as the Bills and Bengals rank fourth and seventh, respectively, in rushing yards allowed per game. Turning these offenses into one-dimensional units should help drive scoring down.

Among the highlights of Cincinnati’s win streak was their 27-24 victory over the Chiefs, in which they limited Patrick Mahomes to 223 passing yards — his lowest output of the campaign. This unit won’t be intimidated by Allen or Stefon Diggs, who is battling an illness this week. 

The Bills rank sixth in net yards per passing attempt against (5.6), so Burrow figures to have his work cut out for him against this stingy group of stoppers. Buffalo is second in the NFL in points allowed per game (17.5). 

Both clubs have been trending Under of late, with the Bills going below the total in seven of their last eight road games, and six of their last eight against teams with winning records. The Bengals are a perfect 7-0 to the Under in their last seven games against teams with winning records, and 11-1 to the Under in their last 12 games played in January.

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