Week 17 NFL Teaser: Falcon 1

Ladies and gentlemen, it is teaser time!

Sadly, I hate to admit it, but I’m officially out of contention for having a winning teaser record this season after the Jaguars couldn’t cover the NFL odds against the Buccaneers when they got blown out 30-12.

I didn’t see that coming which is often the case when one of your bets gets obliterated. Sometimes, with the benefit of hindsight, you can go back and learn from some bad bets and determine why they should have been avoided. Other times, there’s not much to learn at all and you just need to accept that occasionally “shit happens” and past results don’t always carry over to NFL Week 17 predictions. 

All that said, like teams who are out of playoff contention, I’m betting the Week 17 odds for pride this week, so let’s look to finish the season with a couple of winning weeks with my NFL picks.

Week 17 NFL teaser picks

6-point teaser

• Falcons (+8.5)
• Patriots (+20)

Picks made on December 29 at 2:26 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Week 17 Teaser

Falcons (+2.5 to +8.5) vs Bears

Maybe the only thing the Atlanta Falcons do consistently is play in tight games. They’ve played in 10 one-score games and are on a stretch of 11 straight games where they either won or lost by eight points or less.

It’s somewhat of a similar story for the Chicago Bears who’ve played in five one-score games over their last seven games and there are a couple of reasons why I think the Falcons can keep this game close.

Atlanta’s defense has been elite on both third down and in the red zone, ranking in the top three in each category. They’ve also been effective at pressuring opposing quarterbacks where they rank ninth in pressure percentage which lines up well with the Bears who struggle to prevent pressure, with them ranking 26th in pressure percentage allowed. As a result, don’t expect a massive day for Chicago’s offense.

On the other side of the ball, I think Atlanta will be able to extend drives against a Bears defense that ranks 29th on third down, and if they get in the red zone, they should be able to punch it in as the Bears are dead-last in opponent red zone touchdown percentage. This game sets up extremely well for Bijan Robinson as Chicago is dead-last in receiving yards allowed to running backs.

Patriots (+14 to +20) vs Bills

Let’s make the biggest spread of the week even bigger by giving the New England Patriots a massive cushion against a Buffalo Bills team that’s made a habit out of playing down to the competition. Buffalo is on a 0-6 ATS slide as a double-digit favorite which includes going 0-4 ATS this season.

New England has been more competitive than you probably think in the second half of the season as six of their last seven games were decided by one score. They rank a respectable 10th in net yards per play over the last three games and have played much better on the road this season where they rank a surprising eighth in net yards per play.

Let’s not forget they beat the Bills 29-25 earlier this season where they racked up an impressive 6.6 yards per play. While predicting a team’s level of motivation can be a guessing game, I’m willing to guess that this team will want to finish strong with Bill Belichick potentially on his way out of New England. And if Buffalo does get up by multiple scores, I think it’s likely that they’ll take their foot off the gas with a Week 18 game in Miami on deck.

Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.

Best Week 17 teaser spots

• Falcons (+2.5 to +8.5)
• Patriots (+14 to +20)
• Dolphins vs. Ravens (+3.5 to +9.5)
• Chiefs vs. Bengals (-6.5 to -0.5)
• Cowboys vs. Lions (-6.0 to pk)

The Baltimore Ravens haven't been at their best when coming off an elite performance this season and I think this is something the Miami Dolphins can take advantage of. Miami’s defense has been playing at an elite level since Week 8 of the season and I think they’ll avoid being lit up by Lamar Jackson and company. As for the Ravens’ defense, they’ve had some concerning performances in the second half with both the Browns and Rams scoring over 30 points in Baltimore, while last week’s blowout win in San Francisco is a bit deceiving when you consider the 49ers had 429 yards on offense. 

While the Kansas City Chiefs continue to distance themselves from versions of the team from the past few seasons, there’s zero doubt that there’s an enormous gap between Kansas City’s defense and Cincinnati’s. This is a matchup between teams ranked fourth and 32nd in yards allowed per play which sets up well for Kansas City’s offense who’s at the height of desperation. They also tend to respond after a bad performance as they’re an NFL best 19-4 SU after a loss since 2018 when Patrick Mahomes became the starter.  

Speaking of responding after a loss, the Dallas Cowboys are 12-2 SU after a loss since the start of the 2021 season. In their last three games after a loss when the game takes place at home, they’ve scored 38, 49, and 40 points. While the Detroit Lions are a solid team, their defense had struggled on the road where they’ve allowed 31.2 points per game in their last five games while also ranking 28th in yards per play allowed on the season. With Dallas averaging a ridiculous 39.9 points per game in seven home games, the Lions’ chances of containing them are extremely slim. 

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