Week 18 of the regular season is here, and despite the confusion of who’s starting and who isn’t, there are still some great moneymaking opportunities.
Be careful when targeting teams you might think are intentionally tanking — did you see the New York Giants score 45 points last week? Also keep in mind that if you know about it, then the sportsbooks do, and they might overcompensate for the news on which players will be owed big bucks if they can stuff the stat sheet. That doesn’t mean you can’t find edges, it just means you might need to dig a little deeper.
The penultimate week of the regular season saw favorites cover 73.3% of games, which now has them up to 54.8% on the season. Week 18 is always a little different and this season’s edition follows suit with four games boasting double-digit spreads, led by the Baltimore Ravens being favored by 19 over the pitiful Cleveland Browns.
We also have a lot of contrasts with totals with five games having totals in the 30s, while the final game of the week (and season) between the Vikings and Lions has the highest total of the entire season at 56.5 points.
Here are my favorite NFL betting trends for every Week 18 game, which will hopefully be a good starting point for your handicapping. Best of luck and see you in the playoffs!
Best NFL Week 18 betting trends
Browns vs Ravens
The trend: The Browns have gone Under their team total in 13 of their 16 games this season
The Cleveland Browns have scored 16 total points across their last three games. To put into perspective how pathetic that is, the Baltimore Ravens just scored 17 points in the first half against the Texans. Cleveland ranks dead-last in scoring with 15.5 points per game and appears to have fully taken its foot off the gas with Dorian Thompson-Robinson as their QB.
See all Browns vs Ravens trends for Week 18.
Bengals vs Steelers
The trend: The Bengals are 7-1 ATS on the road this season
Road warriors! The Cincinnati Bengals have put together a four-game winning and covering streak. The Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, look like gigantic frauds after getting stomped in three straight vs the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs. Cincinnati is favored by two. A win and lots of help can get the Bengals into the playoffs while the Steelers have already clinched a spot.
See all Bengals vs Steelers trends for Week 18.
Giants vs Eagles
The trend: The Giants have lost 11 straight games in Philadelphia
Some might talk themselves into the New York Giants here considering backups will play heavy minutes for the Philadelphia Eagles. But consider that most of the Giants’ starters are backup-level players. The Eagles are favored by three and are available at -142 on the moneyline.
See all Giants vs Eagles trends for Week 18.
Commanders vs Cowboys
The trend: Eight of the last nine games between these teams in Dallas have gone Over
The total is at 44, which seems low. Washington Commanders road games are averaging 52.8 combined points, while the Dallas Cowboys allow a league-high 32.3 points per game at home. These teams combined for 60 when they met in Washington on November 24.
See all Commanders vs Cowboys trends for Week 18.
Bills vs Patriots
The trend: Buffalo is an NFL-best 13-3 to the Over on their team total
Keep an eye on the status of Josh Allen and other Buffalo Bills starters before backing this one, but their expected absence/limited playing time already appears to be accounted for in betting markets. Regardless, the New England Patriots defense has been getting stomped. A New England loss also locks in the top pick in the 2025 draft.
See all Bills vs Patriots trends for Week 18.
Bears vs Packers
The trend: The Bears are 0-7 ATS in the first half on the road
Simply pathetic. The Chicago Bears average an NFL-low 4.8 points in the first half away from Soldier Field. Meanwhile, the Packers conveniently rank fifth in first-half scoring at home with an average of 15 points. There’s still plenty for Green Bay to play for as it looks to avoid a first-round playoff road trip to Philadelphia. Green Bay is 6.5 on the first-half spread.
See all Bears vs Packers trends for Week 18.
Panthers vs Falcons
The trend: These teams are a combined 23-8-1 to the first half Over
The Carolina Panthers do most of the heavy lifting here as they’ve gone 13-2-1 to the first-half Over, which includes being 7-0 in road games. Earlier in the season, these teams combined to score 39 points in the first half. This week’s matchup has a first-half total of 23.5.
See all Panthers vs Falcons trends for Week 18.
Saints vs Buccaneers
The trend: The Saints have gone Under their team total on five straight road games
Unsurprisingly, the New Orleans Saints have also gone 0-5 ATS in these games, most recently losing 34-0 in Green Bay on December 23rd. This five-game stretch has seen them average just 11.4 points per game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored by 13.5 and the Saints' team total is set at 14.5.
See all Saints vs Buccaneers trends for Week 18.
Jaguars vs Colts
The trend: The Jaguars are 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 matchups against the Colts
Take this one with a grain of salt as we’re obviously going back several coaching regimes for both teams, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have a great history of being competitive against the Indianapolis Colts. Backing Mac Jones doesn’t sound like a lot of fun, but let's consider his opponent just allowed 45 points to the Giants. Indy is favored by 4.5.
See all Jaguars vs Colts trends for Week 18.
Texans vs Titans
The trend: The Titans are an NFL-worst 2-14 ATS
It’s been a record-setting season for the Tennessee Titans for all the wrong reasons. They still haven’t covered a spread at home but will get one more chance against the Houston Texans, who’ve already locked up the division. The Titans are favored by a point with Houston expected to rest starters, but a win by Tennessee will move them down the draft board.
See all Texans vs Titans trends for Week 18.
Dolphins vs Jets
The trend: The Dolphins are 4-1 to the Under in games without Tua Tagovailoa this season
With the Miami Dolphins QB trending toward missing another game, this is one to have on your radar. The Dolphins have averaged just 12 points in the five games that Tagovailoa has missed while they’ve also gone Under in eight of their last nine road games. It should also be mentioned that the New York Jets have scored just 23 total points in their last two games. This game has a total of 39.
See all Dolphins vs Jets trends for Week 18.
Seahawks vs Rams
The trend: The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Seahawks
This one is a little tricky with Jimmy Garoppolo set to fill in for Matthew Stafford while some other key Los Angeles Rams starters will likely see reduced time on the field. That said, the only thing the Seattle Seahawks have to play for is pride as they’ve been officially eliminated from playoff contention so we might not see the best version of their team, either. Seattle is favored by 6.5.
See all Seahawks vs Rams trends for Week 18.
49ers vs Cardinals
The trend: The Cardinals are 3-17 SU in their last 20 divisional games
The Arizona Cardinals have been a punching bag for their divisional rivals and they’ve also been pretty bad as a favorite, where they’ve gone 2-4 SU and ATS. With the San Francisco 49ers set to rest Brock Purdy and start Josh Dobbs, the Cardinals are favored by four.
See all 49ers vs Cardinals trends for Week 18.
Chargers vs Raiders
The trend: The Raiders have gone Under in five straight games
This game has a total of 41.5, a mark the last five Las Vegas Raiders games have all stayed beneath. Their defense has actually been quite strong, with 19 or fewer points allowed in four of their last five. The offense has been a major issue, however, especially on their home field, where they rank 29th in points per game at just 17.4.
See all Chargers vs Raiders trends for Week 18.
Chiefs vs Broncos
The trend: The Broncos are 1-17 SU in their last 18 games against the Chiefs
If the Denver Broncos want to punch their ticket to the playoffs, they’ll need to do something they haven’t done much of over the years and defeat the Kansas City Chiefs. Circumstances are a lot different this time around with Kansas City set to rest its starters resulting in Denver being favored by 10.5.
See all Chiefs vs Broncos trends for Week 18.
Vikings vs Lions
The NFL is saving the best game of the year for last with the Detroit Lions favored by 2.5 over the Minnesota Vikings. They edged out the Vikings by two points when they met in October but had double-digit leads at multiple points despite being down 10-0 in the first quarter. They’ve also scored 30+ points in four straight games against Minnesota.
See all Vikings vs Lions trends for Week 18.
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