A typical buzzword for the last week of the NFL season is “motivation,” and that couldn’t be more true this year.
We have our usual slate of 16 games, but plenty of clubs have already been eliminated from postseason contention, or have no way to improve their playoff seeding.
Add to that the cases of the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals — both of whom would be forgiven if they’re more occupied with the health of Damar Hamlin rather than their respective opponents this Sunday — and it makes for many complicated Week 18 matchups for handicappers.
However, I’ve parsed things down to four bets that I feel fairly confident in, which will be broken up into a pair of two-leg parlays. Without further ado, here are my NFL parlay picks for Week 18.
Week 18 NFL parlay picks
- Jaguars -6.5 (-105) + Cowboys -7 (-110) = +273
- Browns/Steelers Under 40.5 (-110) + Vikings/Bears Over 43 (-110) = +264
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Jaguars -6.5 (-105) + Cowboys -7 (-110) = +273 at DraftKings
Jaguars -6.5 (-105)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have won four in a row heading into Week 18, and all they have to do to clinch a division title is hand the free-falling Tennessee Titans — losers of six straight — one final defeat. They should not squander this golden opportunity on Saturday night.
Jacksonville and Tennessee had their first head-to-head meeting of the season in Nashville in Week 14, and the Jags forced four turnovers and sacked Ryan Tannehill four times en route to a 36-22 triumph.
Tannehill (ankle) will miss his third straight game here, and neither Malik Wills nor Joshua Dobbs has been able to move the chains effectively in his stead. The latter gets the starting nod following a modest 20-for-39 performance against the Cowboys last Thursday night with 232 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have received some outstanding quarterback play from Trevor Lawrence of late, as he’s averaged 7.8 yards per attempt while authoring a 7-2 touchdown-interception ratio over his last four games. Lawrence’s Week 14 effort against the Titans was arguably his best of the campaign, as he passed for a season-high 368 yards while tossing three touchdowns.
Bettors shouldn’t concern themselves too much with the return of Derrick Henry, who missed Week 17 with a hip injury. He rushed for 121 yards when Tennessee last played Jacksonville, and his team still lost by double-digits.
Cowboys -7 (-110)
The Dallas Cowboys know they’ll be in the playoffs next week, but two consecutive losses by the Jalen Hurts-less Eagles have turned the NFC East race into a toss-up ahead of Week 18. A Dallas win and a Philly loss would give Jerry Jones’ squad the division title, so itsd motivation against a Washington Commanders team that’s looking ahead to next year is clear.
Mike McCarthy’s men haven’t lost in regulation since Week 6 — the last game Cooper Rush started in lieu of Dak Prescott. It’s been an excellent year for Prescott, who’s completing nearly 70% of his passes for 7.8 yards per attempt with 22 touchdowns over 11 games, but the one trouble area for him has been interceptions. He’s thrown 14 in total this year, and at least one in six straight games.
However, the Commanders have managed a mere eight interceptions this season, the sixth-fewest in football. Furthermore, they’ve forced only one turnover during their current three-game losing streak, and have given the ball away seven times. Handing the offense over to rookie quarterback Sam Howell might only make things worse in this area.
Trend bettors should note that the Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss, and 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with losing records.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: Browns/Steelers Under 40.5 (-110) + Vikings/Bears Over 43 (-110) = +264 at Caesars
Browns/Steelers Under 40.5 (-110)
Only the Pittsburgh Steelers are in the playoff hunt here, but these teams profile similarly ahead of their Week 18 clash, and it’s apparent that an Under is in store.
Pittsburgh has been involved in five straight games that totaled no more than 40 points, and Under bettors prevailed in four of those tilts. The Steelers’ defense has been especially stingy in their last three matchups, allowing an average of only 216.7 total yards per game in that span.
That doesn’t bode well for the Cleveland Browns, who have managed only 12.6 points per game on offense since Week 11, when Deshaun Watson made his season debut.
Watson’s return to the field has coincided with some outstanding play by the Cleveland defense. By allowing just under 300 yards of total offense per game and forcing 11 turnovers in a six-game span, the Browns have helped Under bettors cash on six straight occasions.
The Kenny Pickett-led Steelers offense has been stunted most of the year, particularly in the passing game (201.4 yards per game, 24th in the NFL), so don’t expect any fireworks from them in this spot.
Considering Cleveland contests have averaged 27.5 points over the last four weeks, it’s hard to believe the listed total is even this high.
Vikings/Bears Over 43 (-110)
The Chicago Bears will turn to Nathan Peterman at quarterback in lieu of the injured Justin Fields in this spot, but Over bettors shouldn’t be scared off with a low total to clear.
Peterman’s propensity to throw picks is the stuff of legends, but the Minnesota Vikings have recorded only one interception in their last four games. In fact, since their remarkable win over the Bills in Week 10, in which Patrick Peterson intercepted Josh Allen to clinch the game in overtime, Minnesota has three total interceptions — two off the Jets’ Mike White in Week 13, and one off the Giants’ Daniel Jones in Week 16.
As long as Peterman can avoid making big mistakes, he can take advantage of a terrible Vikings' defense that’s second worst in the NFL in both yards allowed per game (396.8) and points allowed per game (25.9).
Peterman doesn’t have to do it all either — David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert are a solid backfield duo, they’ve just been getting fewer touches due to the rushing exploits of Fields in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, the Vikings’ offense still has something to play for despite the No. 1 seed being out of reach. Wideout Justin Jefferson is seeking the receiving yards title, as well as a possible Offensive Player of the Year nod.
After a listless outing as a team in Week 17 (a 41-17 loss to the Packers), Kirk Cousins & Co. might want to get back in rhythm ahead of the postseason, and facing Chicago’s 28th-rated total defense (369.3 yards per game) should do the trick.
