NFL Week 18 can be one of the more “bat-shit” crazy slates in all of sports betting, with motivations mixed for the final games of the regular season.
In order to come out clean on the other side, bettors often have to take an early position with the opening numbers or wait for more info on team plans and wager later in the week.
I take my best stab at the “bag of cats” that is Week 18 in my final “Bet Now, Bet Later” of the regular season. Strap in.
Week 18 bet now, bet later picks
- Dolphins (-2.5) at Jets: Bet Now
- Chargers at Raiders (+5.5): Bet Later
- Giants at Eagles (Under 38.5): Bet Now
- Bengals at Steelers (Under 48.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New York Jets: Bet Now
The Miami Dolphins are still alive in the AFC playoff chase but could face their greatest foe in the final game of the season. No, not the New York Jets. I’m talking about cold weather.
The forecast for East Rutherford this coming weekend is cold, with temperatures “feeling like” the mid-20s with the potential for strong winds at MetLife Stadium.
Also anchoring this spread below a field goal is the status of Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa, who sat out Week 17 due to a hip injury. He was doubtful for the game in Cleveland and his status for Week 18 is unknown.
Should Tua play, this spread will go through the key number and likely sit at Dolphins -4 or higher. If you like a motivated Miami team against whatever the Jets are right now, take the favorite at -2.5 now.
Best odds to bet Dolphins -2.5 right now
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5): Bet Later
The Los Angeles Chargers are locked into the postseason but could improve their seeding if they win against the Las Vegas Raiders and the Steelers stumble against Cincinnati in Week 18.
That should be enough of a prompt to push this spread through L.A. -5.5 and find the Bolts closing somewhere on the other side of six points. Coach Jim Harbaugh also told the media that “11 (wins) sounds better than 10” and isn’t one to back into the playoffs, so there’s a good shot his starters play most of this final game.
The Raiders aren’t going to the tournament but there are plenty of players and coaches looking to impress Tom Brady or at least bolster their resume for the offseason. Las Vegas’ recent wins have bumped them back in the draft order, so tanking is no longer a threat.
If you like the Silver & Black to fight back in Week 18, wait this one out and see how many points you can get with the home underdog later in the week. We could be bracing for a backdoor cover.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 38.5): Bet Now
The Philadelphia Eagles own the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs regardless of Week 18’s result, but there is the matter of Saquon Barkley’s pursuit of the single-season rushing record.
Early chatter from Barkey is generic “whatever coach wants” speak, but we’ve seen the running back bench himself in place of backups with history knocking on the door already this season back in Week 7 (could have broken his own single-game rushing record). I don’t think he goes.
Philadelphia already has injury concerns at quarterback and losing Barkley in a meaningless game would doom the Eagles’ playoff chances and have Philly fans calling for Nick Sirianni’s head (louder than usual).
What we’ll see is a run-heavy, dumbed-down playbook from Philadelphia and a New York Giants offense that is ripe for a letdown after an outpouring against Indianapolis on Sunday. Drew Lock was able to bust the Colts for big gains, but Vic Fangio’s schemes are a different beast. The Giants managed only three points against the Eagles back in Week 7.
Add in an extended forecast that calls for chilly temperatures on Sunday (when this meaningless match will likely be played) and possible winds of 20-plus, and I’ll snatch the Under 38.5 before we see this slump to 36.5 or lower later in the week when the status of the Eagles’ stars is official.
Best odds to bet Under 38.5 right now
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Under 48.5): Bet Later
This important AFC North rivalry opened with a total of 47.5 and is already up to 48.5 points in the opening hour of action. I can see why the initial movement would be toward the Over, given these teams combined for 82 points in Week 13.
However, this game will likely be one of the Saturday showcases with plenty of playoff-like intensity. I am interested in the Under if this total keeps climbing.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has sputtered during the team’s three-game slide, averaging just 4.8 yards per play. Mike Tomlin will look to his defense to find their form and has a mini-bye to tighten the screws and prep for the Bengals after playing on Xmas last Wednesday.
And don’t look now, but the Cincinnati Bengals defense has actually gotten off the bus in recent weeks. Cincinnati ranks No. 14 in EPA allowed per play since that shootout with the Steelers, which is a massive improvement on its ranking of 30th in that advanced stat in the opening 13 weeks.
Should this Week 18 finale find its way to Saturday’s schedule, cold weather awaits in Pittsburgh. The extended forecast calls for “feels like” temperatures around 12 degrees and wind gusts getting up to 35 mph. If it lands on Sunday, snow and ice could show up at Acrisure Stadium.
Pump the brakes on this Over/Under and see if we can squeeze a 49-point total or higher before coming back on the Under.
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