The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to four units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
We’re taking some shots at the inaugural Week 18 TD board and hitting a newly-formed hybrid back, a slot receiver in a must-win game, and a backup running back.
Without further ado, our Week 18 touchdown prop picks.
NFL Week 18 touchdown props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 18 TD props
Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+150 at bet365)
The Rams and 49ers will meet for the second time this season at SoFi Stadium on Sunday afternoon, in one of the few games in Week 18 where both teams will be playing everyone. Jimmy Garoppolo is on the wrong side of questionable for a second straight game, meaning Trey Lance will likely be back under center for the 49ers, who come in as 4.5-point underdogs.
Deebo Samuel torched this overrated Rams passing defense for 133 total yards and two scores back in Week 10. Sean McVay’s defense sits 18th in dropback success rate and ranks outside the Top 10 in EPA/play. Kyle Shanahan is a master of getting the ball into Deebo's hands and even with a rookie QB under center last week, Samuel finished with 10 touches and a score. His involvement in the running game has been impressive of late as he has had 45 rushes over his last seven games including six rushing TDs.
Elijah Mitchell’s likely return could eat into these rushing numbers, but Samuel has become a huge part of this offense and the 49ers will need him at his best for an important final week game.
We’re putting down one unit on Samuel’s +150 anytime TD odds which has cashed in six of his last seven games.
Keenan Allen anytime TD (+140 at PointsBet)
It’s win-and-in for the Chargers and Raiders Sunday night, as the winner will punch their ticket to the postseason. Both clubs will be at full strength making this one of the “easier” games to handicap from a touchdown perspective.
Las Vegas slot corner Nate Hobbs was busted for a DUI on Monday, which is pathetic considering Henry Ruggs just killed someone while driving drunk two months ago. Interim head coach Rich Bisaccia has said that Hobbs will play Sunday, which is alarming if true. Hobbs is rated very positively at Pro Football Focus but with this news looming over his head, Hobbs is a candidate to fade in a tough matchup versus Keenan Allen.
Although Allen’s volume hasn’t translated into many yards of late, he does have four touchdowns in as many games and leads the team with nine red zone targets over the last three weeks.
Since the team’s bye in Week 8, Allen has dominated targets in a high-volume passing attack with a 25.6 percent target share, and his 80 targets over that time rank seventh in the league, one spot ahead of Hunter Renfrow. Allen hung a 9/103/1 at home versus the Raiders last season and gets a matchup Sunday against a slot corner who has bigger issues than football to worry about.
Allen is paying +140 to hit paydirt for the second straight week and possibly the fifth time in five games. This is the best price we’ve seen on an Allen TD in three weeks.
Latavius Murray anytime TD (+250 at PointsBet)
Coming off a game where the Browns didn’t run against the Steelers, some bettors may have forgotten how bad this Pittsburgh defense is against the run. Since Week 9, Mike Tomlin’s defense ranks 31st in rush EPA/play. They allow 1.0 rushing TD per game with that number jumping to 1.4 on the road, which is the fourth-worst mark in football. This team is also coming off an emotional game last week and is on a quick turnaround. There’s a reason Baltimore is still a 3.5-point favorite even with Tyler Huntley under center.
Devonta Freeman has been the Ravens’ best RB this season with a 4.3 yards per carry mark, but veteran Latavius Murray has been the preferred goal line option for John Harbaugh. Murray has seen 23 carries over the last three weeks and is playing roughly 30 percent of the snaps but the eight-year pro has taken 10 of the team's red zone carries over that stretch, including six last week.
His usage is up but because he hasn’t popped one in the end zone since Week 13, we’re getting this TD at +250, which is behind Freeman, Huntley, Mark Andrews, and Marquise Brown. It’s worthy of a full unit against a Pittsburgh team that sits fourth in total missed tackles and allows a league-high 5.0 ypc on the road.
Deon Jackson anytime TD (+2,200 at bet365)
The Colts need a win in Week 18 to secure their playoff berth and enter as 16-point road favorites versus the Jaguars, who likely can’t wait for this dumpster season to wrap up. Jonathan Taylor is paying an absurd -400 for an anytime TD, but with the Colts set to cruise Sunday, we’re digging for value in the Indy backfield and hoping backups get some reps as Taylor deserves a quarter or two off.
Nyheim Hines plays the second-most snaps but running back Deon Jackson is the No. 3 back and saw mop-up duties back in Week 13 versus Houston. In that game, the 220-pound undrafted runner out of Duke had six carries for 19 yards and a TD. That TD came in at a cool +1,400 and although his touchdown market is a little scarce heading into the weekend, it should be more widely available sometime on Saturday and we’re hitting this up as low as 10/1.
Taylor does need 266 yards to reach 2,000 on the season, but there is very little reason for Frank Reich to burn out his meal ticket right before the playoffs. This number is just high enough that it will hopefully be a non-factor.
Only one team allows more RB rushing touchdowns than the Jags and Jackson is worth a speculative sprinkle. It will be a 0.3-unit play at +2,200 odds for us.
Season to date: 24-52 SU -3.2u units
