NFL Week 4 Bet Now, Bet Later: Grab the Over on Seahawks-Giants Early

The NFL season will be 22% of the way through when Week 4 kicks off. And it’s at this point that books and bettors start to see teams for who they really are.

We have three weeks of results, with spreads and totals tightening and any misconceptions or over-evaluations correcting quickly. That means getting the best of the number is more important than ever.

And getting that best number requires jumping on opening NFL odds or waiting for lines to move later in the week. It’s what we do here every Sunday night, as I headline a spread and total to take now and ones to push pause on for later.

Week 4 bet now, bet later picks

• Chiefs (-9) at Jets: Bet Now
• Ravens (+2.5) at Browns: Bet Later
• Seahawks at Giants (Over 44.5): Bet Now
• Dolphins at Bills (Under 54): Bet Later

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9) at New York Jets: Bet Now

The Kansas City Chiefs sent a statement to the league with an absolute ass-waxing of the Chicago Bears in Week 3, and not just with the 41 points scored but also the measly 10 allowed. This Kansas City defense is for real and that should have all AFC contenders crapping in their pants.

Through three games, the Chiefs stop unit has allowed a combined 39 points and ranks fifth in EPA allowed per play (before primetime Week 3 games finished). That means KC shouldn’t have too much trouble putting Zach Wilson and the New York Jets offense in box on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.

The Jets are 31st in EPA per play since Aaron Rodgers’ unfortunate injury and Wilson is not the answer. Yet, New York head coach Robert Saleh insists Wilson is their guy going forward. As for Gang Green’s defense, it’s starting to show cracks after being on the field for extended minutes in 2023.

The Chiefs opened as 9-point road favorites in East Rutherford and we’ve already seen jumps to -9.5 and -10 out there Sunday night. If you’re taking KC in Week 4, do it right now at -9 before the public and all those Swifties jump on Taylor's new team.

Best odds to bet Chiefs -9 right now

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns: Bet Later

The Baltimore Ravens left a bad taste in the mouths of just about every form of gambler in Week 3, from point-spread pick’ems to survivor pools. The injury-plagued Ravens lost 22-19 to the Indianapolis Colts in overtime, coming up way short as 7.5-point road faves.

The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, ransacked the Tennessee Titans 27-3 and this Jim Schwartz defense is a beast. Heading into the primetime Week 3 contests, the Browns are by far the No. 1 team in EPA allowed per play and Myles Garrett will make major moves up the Defensive Player of the Year odds after his performance in Week 3.

This spread opened Browns -2 and has crept up to -2.5 at most shops on Sunday night. Those polar opposite results could draw more early play on Cleveland and push this AFC North showdown to a field-goal spread. If it does hit Baltimore +3, you’ll want to take a long look at the Ravens’ injury report.

Baltimore has a number of starters dinged up on both sides of the ball but after the bulk of those guys sat out the last two weeks, the Ravens could start to get guys back for this trip to Cleveland. Deshaun Watson may have looked serviceable against the Titans, but Baltimore is a much tougher test — especially if they return some key defenders.

Wait it out and see how many points you can pick up with the Ravens.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (Over 44.5): Bet Now

The Seattle Seahawks are built for Overs. The team ranks fourth in EPA per play and 27th in EPA allowed per play. That quirk was on full display the last two weeks with 132 combined points scored in those games.

The Seahawks cross the country for a Monday Night Football showdown with the New York Giants, who are just as bad defensively. The G-Men sit 29th in EPA allowed per play, having given up a grand total of 98 points through three games (not all points came against the defense, but it all counts toward the total).

New York does get a mini-bye to figure out its fumbling offense, which has faced some tough defenses in Dallas and San Francisco. Against Arizona, the Giants managed 31 second-half points in that wild Week 2 comeback and won’t face much pushback from the Seahawks.

This total opened as low as 44 points and is up to 45 at some books, but you can still get 44.5 on Sunday night.

Also read: Jason Logan's Seahawks vs. Giants predictions

Best odds to bet Over 44.5 right now

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Under 54): Bet Later

After watching the Miami Dolphins dial up 70 points on the Denver Broncos in Week 3 — and never take their foot off the gas — everyone was watching and waiting to see how tall this AFC East total was going to go.

Books opened Fins-Bills with an Over/Under as low as 52.5 points and that has since climbed to 54 on Sunday evening. The big number and any moves up are warranted, especially when you consider these foes combined for 61 and 65 points in their two run-ins in 2022.

However, if you’re looking to go against the grain, you’ll want to wait and see just how huge this total goes before coming back on the Under.

Miami has put up monster numbers against two dog-shit defenses in the Chargers and Broncos, but the Buffalo Bills are No. 2 in EPA allowed per play (as of Week 3 primetime games) and divisional rivals always play each other tough. Just look at the Dolphins 24-17 win at New England in Week 2 that stayed Under the total of 46 points.

And let’s not sell Vic Fangio’s defense short either. Sure, Miami found itself in a shootout in Week 1 but if you look at the past two contests, the Dolphins wind up No. 6 in EPA allowed per play and have been very sound against the pass.

If you’re steering into the skid, by all means bet the Over now and get ahead of what should close as the biggest total on the Week 4 board. But if you’re not buying into the hype of the Fins’ 70-point supernova, let the total tick upwards before coming in on the Under.

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