The football schedule rolls into the autumn months and that means weather is going to affect outcomes and influence the NFL odds more each week.
I circle the games with potential weather in NFL Week 4, looking at how rain, wind, and heat will play a role in your wagers this weekend.
Here’s the NFL weather report for Week 4.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets weather
The Denver Broncos are back on the East Coast for another 1 p.m. ET kickoff, not only facing the New York Jets but also East Rutherford's elements.
The current forecast calls for light rain on Sunday afternoon, with a 35% chance of showers making the questionable turf at MetLife Stadium a little more dangerous.
Winds could reach gusts of 20 mph in the second half, blowing ENE from corner to corner. MetLife Stadium is known for some weird winds, affecting both kicking and fielding punts as well as longer field goals.
Denver’s offense currently sits 30th in first downs per game and has punted at the third highest rate, sitting fourth in average net yards per punt.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers weather
Hurricane Helene hit Florida hard this week, causing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to alter their preparation for Sunday’s home date with the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Tampa area is under a tropical storm warning on Thursday with gusts reaching 55 mph. That’s moved late-week practices indoors.
The storm isn't expected to affect Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff, but fans traveling to pirate waters from Philly on Thursday or Friday could be delayed with airports closing.
Instead, soupy September temperatures with high humidity (73%) making it feel like 108 degrees on the field await the Bucs and Eagles at Raymond James Stadium.
That type of heat saps energy at a rapid rate and tests depth in the final 30 minutes. Philadelphia’s ground-and-pound attack could take advantage of that, with longer extended drives and the fifth-highest no-huddle rate in the league.
Tampa Bay has several starters on both sides of the ball with an injury designation entering Week 4, while Philadelphia could be thin on the offensive line and at receiver.
Thunderstorms are in the area but are expected to pass by before the 1 p.m. ET start time.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears weather
There are some stronger breezes forecast for Solider Field on Sunday, but nothing too crazy, when the Chicago Bears host the L.A. Rams.
Winds will blow at sustained speeds of 14 mph and reach gusts up to 22 mph moving NNE from corner to corner. Those pesky gusts could push around deeper passes and longer field-goal attempts.
Los Angeles QB Matthew Stafford is no stranger to the swirling breezes in the Windy City, going back to his time as Detroit’s franchise player. However, he does see a slight decline in career production when playing outdoors and has yet to play in an open-air venue this season.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers weather
Lambeau Field is the site of a huge NFC North showdown in Week 4. The sun is shining and the temperatures are perfect, but the fall Wisconsin winds should be noted.
The forecast calls for sustained winds of 11 mph and gusts could reach speeds of 23 mph blowing NE from corner to corner during this 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
The Green Bay Packers have attempted the most field goals of any NFC team through three weeks, going 9 for 11 on those kicks with misses coming from 40-49 yards out.
Quarterback Jordan Love could return under center this Sunday, which would help the Cheeseheads finish those drives with touchdowns rather than FGs.
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers weather
The forecast in Santa Clara calls for sustained winds of 10 mph with gusts getting up to 20 mph and blowing NNW from end to end at Levi’s Stadium.
Should those breezes blow, they’ll have a bigger impact on the San Francisco 49ers’ downfield attack, with QB Brock Purdy producing the second-most air yards in the league. San Francisco has an NFL-best 13 passing plays of 20 or more yards through three games.
The New England Patriots, on the other hand, have just two passes of 20-plus yards and are sticking with veteran QB Jacoby Brissett in Week 4. He’s rarely looking beyond the sticks on dropbacks, sitting among the bottom of the air yards statistics.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens weather
It could be a soggy Sunday night when the Baltimore Ravens host the Buffalo Bills.
The current forecast calls for a 67% chance of light rain throughout the prime-time showcase. Sustained winds will be at 10 mph with gusts flirting with 20 mph early in the first half, blowing ENE from end to end at M&T Bank Stadium.
Wet weather can lead to drops from receivers as well as fumbles and bobbled exchanges. Both receiving corps are surehanded, with Baltimore yet to drop a pass and Buffalo only whiffing on one of Josh Allen’s 72 attempts. As for ball control, the Ravens and Bills both have a fumble to their names in 2024.
The more concerning situation is the health of Baltimore center Tyler Linderbaum, who is listed as questionable for SNF after dealing with neck and knee injuries to start the season. He’s been an anchor in this offense since 2022 and should he sit out, rookie Nick Samac would take at center. Mix in wet weather and primetime nerves, and we could see some miscues on snaps.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins weather
One of two Monday Night Football games is happening in South Florida, where post-Hurricane weather will have the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans sweating through their pants.
The forecast for Hard Rock Stadium calls for humidity flirting with 80%, making the temperatures in the mid-80s feel like 104 degrees at night.
As mentioned above, that climate quickly sucks the energy out of players and tests the depth of the rosters in the final 30 minutes. Neither the Dolphins nor Titans run an especially fast offense and sit near the bottom in no-huddle usage. That’s especially true for Mike McDaniel’s pre-snap motion schemes and the QB mess in Miami.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
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