Week 5 NFL Parlay Picks: Jaguars Tailback Takes Bills to Task

The first bye weeks of the 2023 NFL season have arrived in Week 5, but that doesn't mean the betting opportunities have dried up.

I've scoured the NFL odds and put together a parlay of my two top total plays, plus a same-game parlay involving the early-morning affair in London.

Read on for my free NFL picks.

Week 5 NFL parlay picks

• NO/NE u39 + NYJ/DEN o43 = +264
• Jaguars +7.5 + Etienne o63.5 rush yds + Cook u52.5 rush yds = +282

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Week 5 parlay pick

Saints vs. Patriots Under 39

Jets vs. Broncos Over 43

+264 at BetMGM

Derek Carr, injured or not, had his worst game as the Saints quarterback to date last week. He averaged an embarrassing 3.7 yards per attempt on 37 passes in a 26-9 loss to the Buccaneers, and that was in climate-controlled New Orleans. Carr could be in big trouble visiting a Patriots pass defense that's eighth in yards allowed per pass and 10th in passing yards per game. 

Meanwhile, Mac Jones is fresh off one of his worst efforts in the pros, going 12 of 21 for 150 yards with two interceptions vs. the Cowboys before being benched. He's on pace for career-lows in yards per attempt, completion rate, and TD:INT ratio. Facing the Saints' fourth-ranked pass stoppers by yards per attempt is unlikely to aid his cause.

Jets signal caller Zach Wilson had his best game of the year (I know that's not saying much) vs. the Chiefs last Sunday, completing 28 of 39 passes for 245 yards with two TDs and no INTs. That was at home, and now he must travel to Denver, but fellow young quarterback Sam Howell has had similar struggles this season yet looked like a superstar (27-for-39, 299 yards, two TDs) on the road vs. the Broncos defense.

Denver is allowing a league-worst 9.5 yards per pass attempt through four games, so expect the Jets' offense to take off in the Mile High City.

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos are averaging 28 points per game since misfiring in Week 1. Russell Wilson has a passer rating above 100 in three of four contests, and the Javonte Williams-led rushing attack looks solid.

The New York defense has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, so look for Denver to move the ball on the ground with efficiency, even if NCAA rushing yards record-holder Jaleel McLaughlin is pressed into action in lieu of Williams (questionable).

Best Week 5 SGP

Jaguars +7.5 (Alt. Spread)

Travis Etienne Over 63.5 rushing yards

James Cook Under 52.5 rushing yards

+282 at Caesars

I don't think the fact that the Jaguars stayed over in London while the Bills were forced to travel there on the heels of an emotional win over the Dolphins is being baked into this spread, which sits at 5.5 as of Thursday afternoon. I'll buy a little insurance and grab two extra points with Jacksonville. Travis Etienne should be able to help the Jags stay within one score.

Etienne has gotten a steady diet of carries, with his 69 totes ranking fifth in the league. The Bills have proven vulnerable on the ground this year, as they're dead-last in yards allowed per rush. This line is almost identical to his season average of 65 rushing yards per game, but I'm calling for an above-average day here.

Finally, James Cook disappointed in the Bills' win last week, rushing for just 29 yards on 12 carries vs. an exploitable Dolphins defense. The Jaguars are ninth in rushing yards allowed per game, and the game script could work out in our favor here and keep Josh Allen throwing throughout.

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