Neither the Carolina Panthers nor the Chicago Bears have had the start to the season they wanted on offense. Carolina's quick hook of Bryce Young in favor of the well-traveled Andy Dalton is proof positive of that.
Caleb Williams has flashed potential but has yet to put it all together for Chicago. I still think we'll be left waiting, even with this soft matchup at Solider Field.
I'll target a generous Under line in the NFL odds there, and another Under play will be the focus of my favorite same-game parlay as I make my Week 5 NFL picks.
NFL Week 5 parlay picks
- CAR/CHI u41.5 + Williams u216.5 pass yds + Hubbard o59.5 rush yds = +440
- NYG/SEA u43.5 + BUF ML + BAL ML = +535
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Best NFL Week 5 SGP
Panthers vs. Bears Under 41.5
Caleb Williams Under 216.5 passing yards
Chubba Hubbard Over 59.5 rushing yards
- Panthers vs. Bears Under 41.5
- Caleb Williams Under 216.5 passing yards
- Chuba Hubbard Over 59.5 rushing yards
I foresee both teams struggling to move the chains in this one.
While Andy Dalton has served to boost this Carolina offense in place of Bryce Young, his early results should be taken with a grain of salt as neither the Bengals nor the Raiders boast a strong defense this year. He takes a step up in class vs. Chicago, a team that's ninth in passing yards allowed per game and seventh in QB pressure rate.
While Dalton's passing yards Under appeals, I think the better bet is Caleb Williams Under 216.5 passing yards. Our NFL prop projections have it as a five-star play.
Williams, like Dalton, will be throwing into 15 mph winds for half the game. He's cleared this line only once, and it was indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium vs. the Colts. If Williams isn't stretching the field, it makes the Under all the more likely.
Another five-star Week 5 player prop I'm adding to this SGP is Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard Over 59.5 rushing yards.
Hubbard has cleared this number in each of his last three games, going over 100 yards on the ground in two straight. After getting just 16 combined carries over his first two games, Hubbard got 21 carries vs. Las Vegas and 18 vs. Cincinnati, continuing a trend dating back to last season that saw him eclipse 15 carries in six of his final seven contests.
Based on his career average of 4.1 yards per carry, 15 totes is the magic number needed to clear this bar. Hubbard is averaging 5.4 yards per carry in 2024, and with the Panthers potentially looking to protect Dalton from a wind-aided interception or the Bears' fearsome pass rush, I expect Hubbard to get plenty of work vs. Chicago's 19th-ranked run stoppers by yards allowed per rush.
The total is trending south on this game, but BetRivers is still hanging 41.5. If you shop elsewhere, you'll likely have to settle for the key number of 41.
Best NFL Week 5 parlay
Giants vs. Seahawks Under 43.5
Bills moneyline
Ravens moneyline
The Seahawks are finally getting their due as 6-point favorites in the Week 5 odds, but a brutal rest disadvantage has me tapping the brakes on fading the Giants against the spread.
New York has been idle since an ugly TNF loss to the Cowboys on September 26 while Seattle had to travel from Detroit on Monday night after a track-meet defeat. If the Seahawks are sucking wind in the fourth quarter, that could allow for a backdoor cover or yet another outright underdog victory, something bettors should keep in the back of their minds when assessing Week 5 betting trends.
The Under is the play with Daniel Jones trying to throw vs. the Seahawks' sixth-ranked defense by net yards allowed per pass attempt. This ranking is bolstered by Seattle's elite pass rush, which is pressuring QBs at an NFL-best rate of 35.9%.
The Giants, who are a perfect 4-0 to the Under this year, are sorely missing Saquon Barkley as they're last in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt. I see plenty of third-and-longs for Jones, who will try to call signals in front of a raucous crowd at Lumen Field.
While I expect New York's pathetic offense to drive this Under, the Giants defense can hold its own as it ranks 12th in yards allowed per game and 13th in points allowed per game.
I'll turn my favorite total play into a three-leg parlay by folding in my top moneyline value picks.
The Buffalo Bills looked bad vs. the Baltimore Ravens but the latter's run game took advantage of a favorable matchup. The Houston Texans' rushing attack is not in the same league as the Ravens'.
Houston is fortunate to be 3-1 after surviving some close calls, while Buffalo had been blowing out its competition before the Baltimore debacle.
Speaking of the Ravens, they could run roughshod over a Cincinnati Bengals defense nursing a plethora of injuries in the front seven with Germaine Pratt, Trey Hendrickson, and BJ Hill all questionable. I'll gladly take Baltimore as a tepid road favorite over a Bengals team that is 1-3 despite playing a cupcake schedule thus far.
If you don't have FanDuel, DraftKings has the next-best price on this SGP at +513.
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