The second-oldest bowl game in the country gets underway this afternoon when Louisville meets Washington in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX. Despite plenty of opt-outs, my Louisville vs. Washington predictions believe the best market to attack is in the player props.
Find out why I'm backing Isaac Brown for a big game in my college football picks for Tuesday, December 31. Kickoff is at 2:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
Louisville vs Washington prediction and best bet
Who will win Louisville vs Washington?
Louisville. The Cardinals have a clear advantage running the ball here, but the paths to victory beyond that are murky. Sure, Washington winning this game is far from unreasonable, but it requires them to accomplish things via the unknown. I’ll take the more proven route.
My best bet
Isaac Brown over 98.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Let’s start with the opt-outs.
There’s a host of non-skill players for the Washington Huskies who will be missing and alter the outcome of this game. There will be two offensive line starters at left tackle and left guard missing. There will also be a host of rotational defensive players, including LB Khmori House, who saw over 300 snaps, along with a defensive end in Lance Holtzclaw, who saw 114 snaps, and a few others throughout the secondary.
All of these are left via the transfer portal. Washington was outstanding against the pass this season, and those opt-outs won’t change that a ton.
However, they were poor against the rush, ranking 114th in EPA per run. It could get worse or even more likely, considering these losses included some key cogs to slow the run, particularly at the second level — even if they weren’t classified as “starters.”
Multiple essential players are missing for the Louisville Cardinals, but the story is with the skillset players.
QB Tyler Shough, who threw for over 3,000 yards, won’t play, and neither will star WR Ja’Corey Brooks, who had over 1,000 yards receiving. While those two prepare for the draft, the Cards get a boost from WR Caullin Lacy, who is returning from injury, but it’s unclear how good of a game shape he’ll be in.
I say all this to highlight the uncertainties that surround this game. However, one of those things that isn’t unknown is Isaac Brown. He’ll be playing, and he is very good at football. For my best bet, I’ll take the freshman RB to eclipse 100 yards on the ground. It's likely the most known quantity of this matchup.
Isaac Brown was perhaps the most exciting player for Louisville this season, not only because of what his success meant for the immediate sense but also for the future. The freshman burst onto the ACC scene multiple times this year, but his most significant accomplishment was likely running for over 150 yards in a win at Clemson. He finished the year with numerous accolades, including several freshman All-American teams.
His explosiveness was the main reason and only an opportunity to showcase that. The Huskies struggled to defend the run on down-to-down bases and were particularly poor in slowing down the long explosive ones.
Washington finished the year third-to-last in the Big Ten in runs allowed that went 40 yards or more with three given up. They finished in the same spot in runs allowed that went 30 yards or more with seven given up. And they finished in the spot in runs allowed over 20 yards, being only one of six teams in the league to allow 14 or more.
That feels like a death sentence when facing Brown, who had the third-highest amount of runs of 40 yards or more this season. Brown has a clear path to exceeding this mark through volume and explosiveness.
Louisville vs Washington same-game parlay (SGP)
Isaac Brown Over 98.5 rushing yards
Louisville moneyline
I’m keeping this one relatively straightforward. Louisville went 4-1 this season when Brown ran for 100 yards or more, and its only loss came against a college football playoff team. In the other three Louisville losses, Brown ran for fewer than 75 yards, which is probably even more correlated than the pricing indicates.
The Washington offense has been too inconsistent this season, particularly in the red zone. That will be their undoing here, as they’ll face an offense with a clear pathway to regular success.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Louisville vs Washington odds
Louisville vs Washington live odds
Louisville vs Washington opening odds
- Louisville vs. Washington spread: Washington +4.5
- Louisville vs. Washington moneyline: Louisville -184, Washington +152
- Louisville vs. Washington Over/Under: 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Louisville vs Washington spread and Over/Under analysis
- On the news of some opt-outs, Washington took money and has brought this spread down to below a field goal.
- These two teams have never met in school history. In addition to that bit of Louisville's history, this will be just the second time the Cardinals have played a football game in El Paso, Texas.
- Louisville covered its final two games by an average margin of +21.5, while Washington finished the season with a 4-6 ATS record.
- Covers Consensus data shows 58% of spread picks taking Louisville, and a commanding 70% of picks leaning on the Over.
Louisville vs Washington betting trend to know
Louisville has hit the Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units/27% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Louisville vs Washington.
How to watch Louisville vs Washington game info
| Location: | Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-31-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Louisville vs Washington latest injuries
Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.
Louisville vs Washington weather
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