The Ottawa Senators have climbed into a wild-card spot and continue their lengthy road trip against the Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center on Thursday, January 2.
Elite defensive play has been the calling card for Ottawa’s success, and my Senators vs. Stars predictions and top NHL picks expect another low-scoring result tonight.
Senators vs Stars prediction
My Senators pick
Under 6 (-110 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
If Ottawa Senators No. 1 goalie Linus Ullmark (back) were healthy and starting tonight, a 6-goal total wouldn’t be available. He was playing at an elite level prior to the injury, and he was a big reason why the Sens have surged into a playoff position as we head to the midway point of the year.
Still, Ottawa has played better team defense, too. And, of course, the Dallas Stars are a high-end defensive team on home ice.
The Sens have allowed the second-fewest goals per 60 at 5-on-5 (1.67) and fewest per game (1.92) during their active 9-3 run, while the Stars have surrendered the seventh-fewest per 60 at 5-on-5 (1.99) and third-fewest per game (2.25) at the American Airlines Center for the campaign.
Returning to the crease, Dallas starter Jake Oettinger has also been far better at home than on the road. He’s posted a .917 SV% and 2.15 GAA in front of the Dallas fans compared to .896 and 2.80 marks on the highway.
Both teams have been trending to the Under, too. Ottawa has an active 1-6-3 totals record, while Dallas has gone 2-6-2 to the number. As a result, the Sens likely turning to backup Mads Sogaard isn’t a dealbreaker in this matchup. His career .879 SV% and 3.55 GAA are eyesores.
Senators vs Stars odds analysis
I’m a little surprised the Senators are such a significant underdog at Pinnacle, and there's been enough action on Dallas to move the Stars from an opening -181 favorite to -201 as of Thursday morning. The highlighted goaltending mismatch hasn’t gone unnoticed, obviously.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this total did dip to 5.5, which obviously makes the Under much less attractive without the luxury of a potential push. Still, I’m expecting this to be a close, low-scoring game.
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Senators vs Stars odds
Senators vs Stars live odds
Senators vs Stars opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa +1.5 (-168) | Dallas -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Ottawa +159 | Dallas -181
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Senators vs Stars trend
The Senators have an active 1-6-3 Over/Under record, while the Stars have gone 2-6-2 to the number over their last 10. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Stars.
How to watch Senators vs Stars
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-2-2025 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN5 |
Senators vs Stars latest injuries
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