2025 begins the same way that 2024 began, with Ja Morant back on the sideline. The Memphis Grizzlies superstar is now facing a shoulder sprain, an uncertain timeline to return but certainly out for tonight.
Unfortunately for Memphis, it has plenty of experience playing without the oft-injured or -suspended point guard, meaning these free NBA picks should know right where to look for value against the Golden State Warriors tonight.
My Grizzlies vs. Warriors predictions will focus on a Memphis piece enjoying an increased and more stable role. Read on for free NBA picks on Saturday, January 4.
Grizzlies vs Warriors prediction
My best bet
Scotty Pippen Jr. Over 6.5 assists (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
When Ja Morant is out, various Memphis Grizzlies players pick up more of the workload than others. Jaren Jackson Jr.’s usage rate jumps to 33.2% from 25.7%, while Brandon Clarke’s day barely changes. Desmond Bane’s job does not shift as much as one might expect, either. On the surface, neither does Scotty Pippen Jr.’s usage rate, which goes to 20.6% from 20.5%.
But Pippen’s minutes jump to 26.5 per game from 19.6, logical as Memphis needs more ball handling without Morant. And with that increase in minutes, Pippen’s counting stats all rise: 13.8 points from 8.5; 6.1 assists from 4.2; 4.0 rebounds from 3.0.
Capitalizing on that jump in points comes at -125 juice, but the jump in assists features plus-money.
In three of his last seven games without Morant, Pippen had nine or more assists. It would be unfair and trivializing to say this has become part of Pippen’s role with the Grizzlies, filling in for Morant when he is on the bench, but it would not be entirely false.
Pippen’s minutes jump — north of 30 in three of the last seven games without Morant — and he makes good use of them.
Given Pippen was not run heavily last night — only 25 minutes, logging five assists in a loss at Sacramento — expect the Grizzlies to lean on him tonight against the Golden State Warriors.
Grizzlies vs Warriors same-game parlay
Scotty Pippen Jr. Over 6.5 assists
Scotty Pippen Jr. Over 12.5 points
Warriors -3
The Pippen assists Over prop is better value than the Pippen points Over prop, but that does not mean the latter does not make nearly as much sense as the former. Pippen has scored at least 14 points in five of his last seven games without Morant, including 16 points last night.
But Pippen’s success will not assure Memphis of success. The Warriors need to capitalize on this moment, and they have a significant rest advantage to help doing so.
It is not just that Golden State did not play last night; it is that the Warriors have been home for more than a week and most of the last two weeks. They have played just one road game since Dec. 22, a quick jaunt down to Los Angeles.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have been away from him since Dec. 27, this being their fifth straight road game.
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Grizzlies vs Warriors odds
Grizzlies vs Warriors live odds
Grizzlies vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +6.5 | Golden State -6.5
- Moneyline: Memphis +125 | Golden State -150
- Over/Under: Over 239 | Under 239
Odds courtesy of bet365
Grizzlies vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- Before Memphis lost last night, bet365 opened with an aggressive line favoring Golden State by 6.5 points. Once the game in Sacramento was completed, the line immediately plummeted to -2.5.
- The Grizzlies did not tax any players too aggressively last night, keeping everyone but Jaylen Wells at 35 minutes or fewer, though mostly that -6.5 simply seemed like a mispriced number and that explained the four-point shift.
- It held at -2.5 into Saturday afternoon, then reaching -3.
- The total was also mispriced, set at 239 and reaching 240 before that game on Friday, then reopening at 236.5 and falling as low as 231.5 early Saturday afternoon.
Grizzlies vs Warriors trend
The Grizzlies have covered the spread in both games against the Warriors this year, though they lost outright by five at Golden State in mid-November without Morant. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Warriors.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Warriors
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, California |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN SE, NBCSBA |
Grizzlies vs Warriors latest injuries
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