Hello. My name is Tom Thibodeau, and my coaching style has been a great success and an NBA punch line.
No, really. My New York Knicks are No. 3 in the East after reaching the Conference Finals last year, and we just showed how strong we were last night.
However, other coaches often joke about the toll I put on my players, much like they did yesterday before we flew out to face the Chicago Bulls tonight. That wear is probably going to cost us.
Deprecating and fictional first-person aside, my Knicks vs. Bulls predictions see no choice but to doubt New York in the second half of this back-to-back after Thibs aggressively leaned on his stars 24 hours ago.
My free NBA picks trust the home underdogs before tip at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 4.
Knicks vs Bulls prediction
My best bet
Bulls +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Let’s not overcomplicate this. The New York Knicks played back-to-back games in Washington games last week. They were 13-point favorites in both of them, though New York was even in the second half of a back-to-back entering that first matchup against the Wizards.
Now this should be emphasized: The Knicks did not abuse their starters’ minutes against the Magic the prior night, with only Mikal Bridges seeing more than 40 minutes of floor time.
For Tom Thibodeau, that showed restraint ahead of their two-game set in D.C.
Maybe New York would have been a 14-point favorite at Washington if not for that scheduling disadvantage, so for now let’s give that nod. The next Wizards’ game came against the Chicago Bulls, with Chicago listed as six-point road favorites.
Comparing those two recent lines, we can logic out that the oddsmakers consider the Knicks to be eight points better than the Bulls. Add in tonight’s homecourt advantage, and Chicago should be about a six-point underdog, perhaps +5.5.
That rather plain logic did not yet factor in New York’s efforts last night at Oklahoma City, losing 117-107, undone in the final minutes and in the overall fourth quarter, losing the final frame 37-19. We all know Tom Thibodeau is not about to change his approach, but maybe that fourth quarter would have gone better if his starters were not so gassed.
All five played at least 40 minutes last night, three of them at 42 minutes or more. Admittedly, some of that comes from the Knicks’ bench being lackluster, though that is by Thibodeau’s design...
That bench is going to have to play more tonight, but Thibodeau will still run his starters into the ground. And as bad as Chicago is this season — fighting for the last play-in spot as we are nearing the season’s halfway point — it should be able to take advantage of New York’s fatigue.
This spread should close toward +4. The Knicks are simply too worn out and psychologically beaten given the full flurry they threw at the Thunder last night — only to still lose by double digits.
Knicks vs Bulls same-game parlay
Bulls +5.5
Knicks team total Under 121.5 points
Precious Achiuwa Over 5.5 points
Thibodeau’s charge for that win last night presumably stemmed from a want to prove the Knicks can match up with the best team in the NBA. If it costs New York twice tonight, it can afford that, up 3.5 games on the injured Magic in the Eastern Conference standings.
That is not to say the Knicks will lose tonight, but they should actually give their starters some brief rest. Asking Karl-Anthony Towns to go 40+ minutes two nights in a row is a recipe for a longer-term problem.
That will doom New York’s scoring output, as the bench simply lacks the firepower of the starting lineup. Nonetheless, the expected added minutes should boost Precious Achiuwa’s stat line for the night.
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Knicks vs Bulls odds
Knicks vs Bulls live odds
Knicks vs Bulls opening odds
- Spread: New York -5.5 | Chicago +5.5
- Moneyline: New York -230 | Chicago +190
- Over/Under: Over 235 | Under 235
Odds courtesy of bet365
Knicks vs Bulls spread and Over/Under analysis
- After New York’s loss late Friday night, it still opened as a 5.5-point favorite in this matchup, though some books ticked down to -5 on Saturday morning, only to reestablish themselves at -5.5.
- The total opened at 235 and valleyed at 233 early on Saturday morning.
- Midmorning then drove the total up, reaching 238 by lunchtime.
- That move in the total suggests New York’s legs will be too tired to give full effort on both ends of the court, but it overlooks the fact that if the starters hit the bench, the Knicks’ scoring will plummet.
Knicks vs Bulls trend
New York is 1-2 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this season, including failing to cover as an 8.5-point home favorite against Chicago in November, losing that game outright. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Bulls.
How to watch Knicks vs Bulls
| Location: | United Center, Chicago, Illinois |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV, MSG, CHSN |
Knicks vs Bulls latest injuries
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