One new feature of conference play in the 2024-2025 college basketball season is a slew of cross-country trips due to realignment.
We’ll see the effects today as the Michigan Wolverines head west to begin a two-game Southern California road trip against the USC Trojans, but my Michigan vs. USC predictions don't expect the visitors to suffer this time around.
Find out why in my college basketball picks for January 4.
Michigan vs USC prediction
My best bet
Michigan -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Although the Michigan Wolverines are unranked and recently lost two neutral-court games against Arkansas and Oklahoma, there is still a growing feeling they're a “sleeping giant” this season.
Dusty May’s emergence in Ann Arbor has the Wolverines ranked just outside KenPom’s Top 10 at 11th overall. They’re a quality team on both sides of the ball, ranking 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, making them a threat in the Big Ten and beyond.
They get a chance to prove themselves tonight against a USC Trojans team that has won four games in a row. Eric Musselman’s arrival via Fayetteville has also breathed life into this program, although perhaps not to the extent May has done in Ann Arbor.
USC checks in at 78th overall in KenPom and isn’t particularly impressive on either side of the ball (95th on offense, 81st on defense). The Trojans beat up on poor non-conference opponents and blew out Washington (85-61) but lost each of their three most difficult games (Oregon by eight, New Mexico by 10, Saint Mary’s by 35).
The margin of defeat against quality foes is certainly concerning heading into a borderline Top 10 Michigan team — at least according to the metrics.
While this may seem like a difficult scheduling spot because it involves a cross-country trip, May pointed out that the scheduling gods did them a favor by scheduling this SoCal trip during Winter Break (Michigan resumes classes on Wednesday).
Teams have had few answers for Michigan’s duo of seven-footers, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. While USC’s roster does have good size, it’s not an overly physical unit and ranks just 201st in near-proximity field goal percentage allowed vs. the average opponent (per Haslametrics).
I trust Michigan will be prepped to execute its method of play here against a mediocre USC team. The Trojans are overly reliant on mid-range jumpers offensively, and I never want to back that profile unless it involves a team with elite guard play — which isn’t the case for Musselman's squad of pieced-together transfers.
The Wolverines have legitimate plans of competing for a Big Ten title, and every game matters. The Trojans don’t present an overly difficult test, and the timing of this game mitigates the effects of a cross-country conference game.
Michigan vs USC same-game parlay
Michigan -5.5
Over 150.5
USC has been dead set on the Over this season, going 8-5 O/U against the total. While relying on mid-range jumpers isn’t always a terrific game plan, it could still lead to points in this matchup as Michigan’s defensive game plan involves a lot of drop coverage, cutting off the rim while allowing plenty of 2-point jumpers.
Michigan is averaging 84.0 ppg and likely won’t be slowed against a USC defense due for shooting regression after its (poor) opponents have shot just 31.4% from behind the arc thus far.
The Wolverines are 4-1 O/U in their last five games and I'm betting on another Over coming through on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Michigan vs USC odds
Michigan vs USC live odds
Michigan vs USC opening odds
- Spread: Michigan -5.5 | USC +5.5
- Moneyline: Michigan -210 | USC +175
- Over/Under: Over 150 | Under 150
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan vs USC betting trend to know
USC is 1-11 in its last 12 games against Big Ten opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. USC.
How to watch Michigan vs USC
| Location: |
Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
|
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Michigan vs USC key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
