This evening, it's late-night Big Ten basketball, which we'll see a good amount of this year when Illinois travels west to face its new conference mates, Oregon.
As we preview the matchup in our Illinois vs. Oregon predictions, it must be noted that this will be the third time in school history the programs have met, and the Ducks have won both previous games.
The last meeting came in 2014, in a game that Oregon won by seven points. Illinois has had a good start to the season and is probably only regretting a loss at Northwestern that came during a bad night. The Ducks have started strongly as well, with their lone loss coming by just two points to UCLA.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Thursday, January 2.
Illinois vs Oregon prediction
My best bet
Under 154.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
I don't know where these teams are expected to find regular offense.
Okay, let me rephrase that. There will be points, with a possession total that easily eclipses 70 and plenty of transition opportunities. That is inevitable. However, this total is too high. I don't see either team reaching 80 and making this total 149.5. This number is too high, even with some expected late-game fouling to extend the game. I'm grabbing the Under as my best bet.
The central storyline before breaking down the game is Illinois taking a cross-country road trip for a conference game. It could be as important when this game is occurring.
It's the first game back since the New Year and the first real opponent since December 21. The Illini got the post-holiday hangover game out of the way with a thumping against Chicago State, but the hangover effects are still possibly here. Limited practices and not playing a highly competitive match in two weeks play some part. It can lead to a sluggish start, which would help our Under.
On the other hand, while the Oregon Ducks won't deal with any travel, they'll still be in the perpetual dilemma of rust vs. rest, having also played just one "buy game" since Christmas. You can't simulate game pressure in practice; adjusting to that could take a bit. This may be anecdotal, but history has shown time and time again that there's a relatively high risk of one or both of these teams starting this game struggling to score the basket, given the situational context.
Illinois will face issues seeing a heavy dosage of head coach Dana Altman's staple zone defense. It goes with their season numbers, which have seen some drop in efficiency when facing the zone. I suspect we'll see a ton of that. In the halfcourt, Illinois has been the most efficient at the rim with a two-man game of Kasparas Jakučionis and Tomislav Ivisic. Oregon ranks in the 70th percentile of college basketball in rim defense.
Oregon's issues could be even worse because the Illinois defense is better, and they can attack Oregon's weaknesses even more effectively. Outside of getting scores in transition, Illinois ranks defensively above the college basketball average against what the Ducks want to do the most. Oregon has been relatively reliant on second-change scoring, but Illinois's team size from one to five can reduce that in a big way. Scores will come because both teams desire to run, but things could stagnate in the halfcourt, which should help this total stay low enough.
Illinois vs Oregon same-game parlay
Under 154.5
Illinois moneyline
Given my future position with Oregon to win the Big Ten, I prefer they take care of business here. However, the value is with Illinois. We are in a new world projecting just how much this cross-country travel in a conference game should impact a point spread; it's priced in here, much like it was for Stanford against Clemson, but is it too high?
I make this a coin-flip game between two very even teams. Illinois has slightly more advantages, while Oregon has a slight coaching and situational advantage. I'll take the value and pair Illinois with my best bet to get a road victory.
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Illinois vs Oregon odds
Illinois vs Oregon live odds
Illinois vs Oregon opening odds
- Spread: Illinois +4.5 | Oregon -4.5
- Moneyline: Illinois +170 | Oregon -205
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 | Under 155.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Illinois vs Oregon betting trend to know
Oregon has hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 36 games (+20.35 Units / 9% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Oregon.
How to watch Illinois vs Oregon
| Location: | Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, Oregon |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-2-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fox Sports 1 |
Illinois vs Oregon key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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