The Rutgers Scarlet Knights head to Bloomington to take on the Indiana Hoosiers in NCAA basketball action on Thursday night.
The Scarlet Knights have been a disappointment this season, but highly-regarded recruit Dylan Harper has lived up to expectations, and my Rutgers vs Indiana predictions are betting on a big game from him. Here are my free college basketball picks for this Big Ten clash on January 2.
Rutgers vs Indiana prediction
My best bet
Dylan Harper Over 20.5 points (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Dylan Harper was the No. 2 recruit in the nation, and he's played up to those lofty expectations, averaging 22.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Harper is coming off a modest 16-point performance in his last game. However, that was a 91-64 rout of Columbus and the freshman guard took just 10 field goal attempts while looking to get his teammates involved with a career-high 12 assists.
Expect him to look for his own shot more tonight with the Scarlet Knights 5.5-point road underdogs against the Indiana Hoosiers. In eight games where Rutgers has either lost or won by fewer than 10 points, Harper is averaging 25.3 points and 17.0 field goal attempts per game.
The Hoosiers have struggled defensively against quality opponents, with high-major foes shooting 56.3% from 2-point range against them. They allow too much penetration and sit outside the Top 250 at defending the rim, per ShotQualityBets.
That's bad news against a player like Harper who is in the Top 12th percentile in attacking the rim efficiency. Both of these teams also play at a fast tempo and are tied for 45th in the country in average offensive possession length (15.8 seconds). That speedy pace should lead to more possessions and more scoring opportunities for Harper.
Rutgers vs Indiana same-game parlay
Dylan Harper Over 20.5 points
Malik Reneau 7+ rebounds
Indiana moneyline
With both teams preferring an up-tempo style, there should be an uptick in available rebounds as well. Malik Reneau is Indiana's best player, and he's pulled down 7+ boards in nine of 13 games this season. The 6-foot-9, 232-pound forward is coming off a contest where he had seven rebounds despite playing a season-low 14 minutes.
Besides Harper and fellow five-star freshman Ace Bailey, the Knights don't have anybody else averaging more than 8.0 ppg. That lack of scoring depth along with poor defensive play (the Knights are 97th in the country in adjusted defense per KenPom) will likely lead to a loss even with a big game from Harper.
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Rutgers vs Indiana odds
Rutgers vs Indiana live odds
Rutgers vs Indiana opening odds
- Spread: Rutgers +5.5 | Indiana -5.5
- Moneyline: Rutgers +175 | Indiana -210
- Over/Under: Over 157 | Under 157
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Rutgers vs Indiana betting trend to know
Both of these schools have hit the first-half Over in 20 of their last 33 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Rutgers vs. Indiana.
How to watch Rutgers vs Indiana
| Location: | Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-2-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Rutgers vs Indiana key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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