While not every game of the College Football Playoff has been great, things should ramp up in the semifinals, starting with the Cotton Bowl, which will pit blue bloods Ohio State and Texas against one another.
The Buckeyes have looked like the most dominant team in the CFP, crushing Tennessee and No. 1 Oregon, so it’s no surprise to see them favored against a Longhorns team that needed overtime to get past Arizona State.
My early Ohio State vs. Texas predictions and college football picks break down this epic Cotton Bowl matchup, which is set to kick off on Friday, January 10, at 7:30 pm ET.
Texas vs Ohio State predictions
Early spread lean
Texas +6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
That loss to Michigan feels like a lifetime ago because the Ohio State Buckeyes look like the best team in college football after two rounds of the College Football Playoff — and it’s not particularly close.
The Buckeyes throttled their opponents in the first two rounds, first taking out Tennessee 42-17 at home and then exacted their revenge on Oregon, crushing the undefeated Ducks 41-21 in a game that was over before halftime.
The biggest takeaway from these beatdowns has to be that Ryan Day has shockingly done the smart thing and gotten the ball into the hands of his best playmakers. Notably, Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka have combined for 443 yards and five touchdowns in those two routs. Not to mention Will Howard, who's done an excellent job of getting those guys the ball.
Additionally, the Ohio State defense appears to have found its final form after sacking Dillon Gabriel eight times and limiting Oregon to -23 rushing yards. The question is: can Ohio State keep rolling against the Texas Longhorns?
The Longhorns have had a little bit more of a fight to get here. Texas took out Clemson 38-24 in the first round, then things looked like they were in hand against Arizona State before running back Cam Skattebo almost upset the Longhorns by himself.
Skattebo’s heroics came up just short, and a lot of the credit has to be given to Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers, who threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns. Texas was down to its final play, and the veteran signal-caller stepped up and threw a game-tying touchdown pass in the first overtime before securing the 39-31 victory in the second extra frame.
These are arguably the two most talented teams left, but college football odds have clearly been impressed by what Ohio State has done recently. This line opened with Buckeyes as 4.5-point favorites, but that number did not last long, with the spread quickly jumping to -6.5 across the market.
However, this line isn't taking the full season into account. These teams rank first and second in the country when it comes to EPA margin this season. And if there's a team that can match the talent level of Ohio State, it’s Texas.
If you like Ohio State, act now because I think that recency bias will kick in when the public bettors start wagering on this game, and I could see this spread closing at a full touchdown or more.
I’m on Texas because I think this number has moved too far. I recommend waiting to see if it gets bigger as kickoff gets closer, but for these purposes give me the points with the underdog.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 53.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While the spread is interesting in this Cotton Bowl matchup, the total has my attention as well. It's already been bet down a full point after opening at 54.5, and despite the fact both Ohio State and Texas have played Over the total in each of their playoff games, I agree with the early money.
For starters, this is a matchup of two elite defenses. I’ve already noted that this version of the Buckeyes’ defense is scary for any offense. They enter this game leading the nation in opponent EPA per play and are second in defensive success rate.
However, Texas isn’t too shabby on that side of the ball, either. While the Longhorns rank 22nd in success rate, they're third in opponent EPA per play, and it’s their pass defense that I think will be the key to deciding this game.
Will the Texas secondary be good enough to slow down the likes of Smith and Egbuka in this matchup? Well, the Longhorns rank second in the nation in opponent EPA per dropback and fifth in defensive success rate on dropbacks. Texas doesn’t get burned too often by explosive plays, which turned out to be the downfall of Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
Where you can pick on the Longhorns a bit is on the ground. They rank 58th in success rate against the rush and Ohio State has arguably the best running back duo in the country in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.
Running the football and elite defenses has my early thoughts leaning toward the Under.
Texas vs Ohio State live odds
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