Week 5 NFL Teaser: Denver's Defense Struggles Against New York's Ground Game

I got back on track with my Week 4 teaser bet — barely thanks to the Eagles going to OT with the Commanders — but a win is a win. My teaser record on the season sits at an even 2-2 as we dive into the Week 5 odds. 

This is a tricky slate as far as teaser bets are concerned as NFL odds have just one favorite in that coveted 6-to-8.5-point range that we can tease down inside of three points. There will be a lot of teasing up because of this, and thankfully there’s a handful of underdogs who I think will be competitive — Jason Logan's NFL Week 5 predictions seemed to have had that same thought!

Below you will find my favorite NFL picks to tease for Week 5 where I always follow my basic teaser strategy of crossing as many key numbers as possible and NEVER tease through zero!

Let’s get into the action!

Week 5 NFL teaser picks

6-point teaser

• Jets +7.5
• Rams +10.5

Picks made on October 5 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Week 5 Teaser

Jets (+1.5 to +7.5) vs Broncos

While the New York Jets clearly have a Top 10 stop unit, the Denver Broncos are in the discussion for having the worst in the league after getting lit up in three straight weeks — including in games vs. the Commanders (at home) and vs. the Bears last week. They’re currently ranked dead last in yards allowed per play and 31st in opponent red zone scoring percentage, so if the Jets can get in close, expect them to punch a few in.

Despite losing last week, New York has to be feeling good after being competitive with the Chiefs on Sunday night. Zach Wilson played perhaps his most impressive game as a pro and will have an excellent opportunity to succeed once again against a Denver team that made Justin Fields look like a pro bowler last week. I think the Jets can successfully move the football on the ground as they rank sixth in yards per rush attempt, while the Broncos are 31st in yards per rush allowed.

Outside of their loss in Dallas, the Jets have been in every game this season, highlighted by that win vs. the Bills while also going down to the wire against Kansas City. I expect a tight affair and won’t be surprised if New York pulls off an outright win.

Rams (+4.5 to +10.5) vs Eagles

Despite playing better competition, the Los Angeles Rams are neck-and-neck in many key stats with the Philadelphia Eagles. The teams are actually tied in net yards per play and the Eagles have had trouble pulling away from far inferior teams in three of their four games.

This game sets up well for Matthew Stafford and the Rams' pass attack as we’ve already seen Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, and Sam Howell throw for 290 or more yards against the Eagles. Stafford has hit the 300 passing-yard mark in three of four games and should be able to engineer some scoring drives.

We also have some contrast on defense as Philadelphia is having a very hard time getting off the field. It ranks 25th in opponent third down conversion percentage while L.A. ranks second in that category, so don’t be shocked to see some empty drives from Philly.

Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.

Best Week 5 teaser spots

• Jets (+1.5 to +7.5)
• Rams (+4.5 to +10.5)
• Texans vs. Falcons (+2 to +8)
• Dolphins vs. Giants (-10.5 to -4.5)
• Cardinals vs. Bengals (+3 to +9)

I think the Houston Texans might be for real… not a Super Bowl contender by any means, but just much better than last year’s team.

They proved their 20-point win over the Jaguars was no fluke when they smashed the Steelers by 24 in Week 4 and will carry that momentum into Georgia to face an Atlanta Falcons team that’s scored 13 total points in their last two games. Even if the Falcons get the win, I doubt their offense will be able to pull away by more than one score. 

I typically prefer to get a favorite inside of three points, but getting the Miami Dolphins inside of six in a matchup where the opponent has so much working against them is a strong spot. The New York Giants have been an embarrassment: They’re traveling on a short week and have lost three of their four games by at least 18 points. The Dolphins are averaging an insane 26 more points per game than New York and should be at the top of their game after getting smacked by the Bills last week.

Not many people would have predicted the Arizona Cardinals would be outplaying the Cincinnati Bengals four weeks into the season, but here we are.

Arizona ranks a shocking 15th in net yards per play while the Bengals rank an equally shocking dead last. That’s even more impressive when you consider that Arizona has played the fourth hardest schedule to date according to PFF. I think the Cards can keep this one from getting out of hand by having success on the ground, where they’re second in yards per rush attempt while Cincy is 30th in yards per rush allowed.

Good luck with your bets in Week 4! May the fumbles bounce in your direction and may the replay reviews go in your favor. Catch you again in Week 6!

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