Commanders vs Ravens Same Game Parlay Pick: Zay Wins the Day

Derrick Henry's TD prop is no longer offering value, but Zay Flowers' price is appealing in this market. That will pave the way to a three-leg SGP play for Commanders vs Ravens that's paying out at over +500.

Robert Criscola - Contributor at Covers.com
Robert Criscola • Publishing Editor
Oct 13, 2024 • 11:09 ET • 4 min read
Baltimore Ravens Zay Flowers NFL
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The Commanders vs. Ravens battle in the early window of NFL Week 6 is a must-see matchup pitting Rookie of the Year frontrunner Jayden Daniels against reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. Both teams are hot going into this one, with Washington rattling off four straight victories and Baltimore boasting a three-game win streak.

My Commanders vs. Ravens NFL picks will attempt to extract value from the NFL player props for this game, so let's get right into my favorite Commanders vs. Ravens same-game parlay with a generous potential payout. 

Commanders vs Ravens SGP for NFL Week 6

    Derrick Henry Over 80.5 rushing yards

    Zay Flowers anytime TD

    Terry McLaurin 50+ receiving yards

    With Derrick Henry finding the end zone in each of his first five games for the Baltimore Ravens, the value has just about evaporated on his Week 6 touchdown props at -200 or worse for an anytime TD. However, I think his rushing yard Over is still in play.

    Henry has rushed for no fewer than 84 yards in each of his last four games. And while there have been some explosive runs of 87 yards and 51 yards lumped in there, Henry has gotten to those marks just as much on quantity as he has on quality. 

    The Ravens have fed Henry an average of 20.5 times over that four-game sample, and that will be a formula for success vs. a Washington Commanders defense that ranks 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game and 31st in yards allowed per carry.

    Zay Flowers looks like the best bang for your buck when it comes to the anytime TD market in this matchup.

    The Commanders have had all kinds of trouble bottling up wide receivers, especially in the red zone. Opposing wide-out are averaging two TDs per game vs. the unit, the worst mark in football.

    Flowers has just one TD on the year, but he leads the team in targets by a wide margin (39-22) over Rashod Bateman, who is listed as questionable for this contest. Expect Lamar Jackson to lean hard on Flowers when he has to go to the air.

    My final Commanders vs. Ravens prediction concerns Terry McLaurin, who should help keep the Commanders in this game.

    The Ravens have had all kinds of issues defending the pass in 2024, ranking 31st in yards allowed per game. McLaurin has reached 50 receiving yards in three straight games, averaging 88 yards per game in that sample.

    Not intended for use in MA.
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    Robert Criscola - Covers.com
    Publishing Editor

    Robert M. Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York, which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle, including horse racing. He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com, danonymousracing.com, and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor. “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023.

    His best advice for sports bettors? Bet with your head, not over it.

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