Finding values in NFL odds and look-ahead lines gets trickier each week, as sportsbooks get more information and a better understanding of what each team is made out of.
But... thankfully there are injuries, which always act as an equalizer to throw a curveball into getting that precision handicap.
They're also a foreshadowing of where I'm leaning with my early jump on the look-ahead Week 8 odds, as there's one spread that doesn't quite sit right... and I think an injury is why.
As always: there are no NFL player props to be found here — we're humbly trying to get ahead of the game and find some useful NFL picks value for the weekend after next.
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Miami Dolphins -3 (at Detroit Lions)
| Teams | Current total |
|---|---|
 Miami Dolphins |
-3 (-110) |
 Detroit Lions |
+3 (-110) |
The NFL is a quarterback-driven league... and no team can attest to that more than the Miami Dolphins.
Remember when the Fins were 3-0, fresh off a win over Buffalo and battling with the Bengals in Cincinnati on TNF?
Well, a Tua Tagovailoa concussion brought it all crumbling down, as Miami has lost three straight games — scoring 15, 17, and 16 points — with the offense led by Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson.
But fear not, Dolphins faithful: Tua is back at practice, medically cleared to play, and understanding that it's not all on him to win:
Tua on returning to the team while on a losing streak: I have to be myself. I’m not the savior of this team. I don’t just come in and we start winning games. It’s a team deal.
— Travis Wingfield (@WingfieldNFL) October 19, 2022
Of course, bettors and fans alike will have some trepidation around Tua's return (and ability to withstand another hard hit or two and not sustain another concussion), but with the heat on the Miami front office (and its new medical staff) in the aftermath of Tagovailoa's ugly departure three weeks ago... there's no way he'd be playing unless he was totally safe to do so... right?
Call me an optimist, but I'll give the Dolphins the benefit of the doubt and assume Tua will be ready to roll, making their current Week 8 line of -3 at Detroit a little puzzling.
The current Week 7 odds have Miami as a 7-point home favorite against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which means that the Dolphins are valued at around 5-point chalk on a neutral field — with uncertainty around Tua and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle questionable after being limited in practice due to a shoulder ailment.
The current Week 8 look-ahead would value Miami as 1-point chalk on a neutral field vs. Detroit... Do we really think that the Lions are four points better than Pittsburgh?
Don't get me wrong: I don't think the Steelers are very good, even after upsetting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. But the Steelers have a better record (2-4) than Detroit (1-4), which was most recently seen getting shutout by the Patriots 29-0 before heading into its bye week.
Yes, D'Andre Swift was out for that game and Amon-Ra St. Brown was not 100% in returning from injury, but are we entirely sure Detroit actually has a good offense? Jared Goff has consistently been in the bottom echelon of starting QBs and the team's first four games came against the 17th, 18th, and 31st-ranked defenses in terms of Expected Points Added — plus the third-ranked Eagles who gave up plenty of garbage-time points after holding a 31-14 lead late in the third quarter of Week 1.
Oh, and Detroit's miserable defense is ranked dead last in EPA.
Now, Miami is also sitting in 28th, but in two of three full games with Tua under center (aka a good QB), the Dolphins defense allowed seven points to the Patriots and 19 points to the Bills — the Dolphins aren't a great defense, but they are significantly better than the Lions.
Finally, there's the public perception that will come following Week 7, when a presumably healthy Tua & Co. handle the still-bad Steelers at home (plus, if Waddle might play in Week 7, he should be a safe bet to suit up in Week 8)... and the Lions are ripe to be sacrificed to the Dallas Cowboys' sixth-ranked defense (in EPA).
Long story short: the fully healthy Dolphins are the much better team... And come kickoff next weekend they could very well likely be laying more than a field goal against the Lions. If you believe in Tua & Co., you might want to hop on the Fins now.
