Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off with a TNF matchup between the Patriots and Jets, where both teams will be trusting things that are safe and reliable.
For New England, it's the running game. For the Jets, it's having a quarterback that's not Zach Wilson.
Will it be an exciting game? Probably not, but it will serve as inspiration for my NFL player prop picks this week, as two weeks of trying to be cute have resulted in more Ls than dubs, so we're going to go back to safe, reliable, and trustworthy picks this week.
So naturally, the first of my NFL picks this week is on a veteran backup running back — but he was reliable at one point in time, so that's progress — while I'm also backing one of the most trustworthy TEs in the league.
Latest NFL prop picks
Kittle o50.5 rec yards
(-120 at BetMGM)
Gibson o22.5 rush yards
(-113 at FanDuel)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 3
George Kittle Over 50.5 receiving yards
The San Francisco 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel for the next few weeks, and we know what that means — time bet the Over on George Kittle odds!
San Fran's star tight end is averaging 5.5 catches and 58 receiving yards per game through the first two weeks, but in seven games without Deebo over the past three seasons, Kittle averages:
- 8.1 targets
- 5.7 catches
- 88.4 yards
That includes three games of 120+ yards... and Kittle's receiving yardage total is 50.5 this week against the Los Angeles Rams, who have also been somewhat putrid defensively through two weeks.
The Rams have allowed a 71.4% completion rate and the worst yards/completion (13.8) mark this season, while allowing the fifth-most receptions (12), third-most yards (132), and second-most yards per coverage snap to tight ends.
Neither Sam LaPorta nor Trey McBride were the primary target against the Rams, but still logged 45 and 67 yards, respectively — Kittle could very well be Brock Purdy's No. 1 option on Sunday, considering Brandon Aiyuk has not looked great after joining the team late following a lengthy offseason holdout.
Projections put Kittle north of 62 yards on Sunday, which I think is a little conservative... but would STILL easily clear this number.
Pick made on 9-19 at 10:39 a.m. ET
Antonio Gibson Over 22.5 rushing yards
The New England Patriots are tied for third in the NFL in rushing attempts and fifth in yards through two weeks, and face a New York Jets defense on Thursday that just allowed 130 rushing yards to the Titans... after giving up 180 to the Niners.
New York will also be playing its third game in 10 days and could be without MLB C.J. Mosley, so I'm expecting the Pats to focus on the good ol' ground-and-pound once again.
Now, Rhamondre Stevenson is the undisputed RB1 for New England, but I'm looking at backup Antonio Gibson's odds to top his rushing total, which you can find at just 22.5 yards at FanDuel.
Stevenson dominated the snaps and had 25 carries in Week 1 while Gibson managed just seven rushes, but last week we saw a much more reasonable distribution, with 21 carries for Rhamondre and 11 for the veteran Gibson, who turned that into 96 yards.
I could see an even more balanced run split on what is a short week for New England following a tough overtime loss on Sunday, especially considering Stevenson (the team's best offensive weapon overall) has had more carries in the last two games than any prior two-game stretch in his career.
This number opened at 19.5 for Gibson and has steadily moved, with FanDuel the only book still hanging a 22.5, but with industry projections ranging as high as 33 yards, I'm confident he'll get enough work against a struggling run defense to top this number.
Pick made on 9-18 at 6:27 p.m. ET
NFL Week 3 prop betting card
- Antonio Gibson o22.5 rushing yards (-113)
- George Kittle o50.5 receiving yards (-120)
Last week: 1-4, -2.13 units
Season: 3-7, -3.62 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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