The Kansas City Chiefs will continue their quest to lock up the top seed in the AFC on Saturday when they face the Houston Texans.
Although Patrick Mahomes sustained a high ankle sprain in a win over the Cleveland Browns, he's officially good to go. Let's look at the latest Patrick Mahomes odds and make some NFL picks for Saturday, December 21.
Don’t forget to check out our Texans vs. Chiefs predictions for Saturday before placing your bets!
Patrick Mahomes player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 34.5 passing attempts
(-110 at BetMGM) - SGP Pick
Over 34.5 passing attempts
Under 238.5 passing yards
(-110 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
My best bet
Patrick Mahomes Over 34.5 passing attempts (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I’m not sold that the Kansas City Chiefs are going to limit Patrick Mahomes’ role in such a big game, particularly with Andy Reid glowing about how well his quarterback has practiced this week. Mahomes isn’t even on the injury report ahead of this one, so we should be free to look at this one with an objective lens.
As we do just that, the first thing I’m drawn to is Mahomes’ passing volume. He’s now averaged 39.4 passing attempts in his last eight games, throwing the ball at least 37 times in all but one of those contests, and now he’ll step into a matchup that should call for plenty more involvement.
The Houston Texans may stand tall as the top passing defense in the NFL, but that hasn’t necessarily meant opponents have been hesitant to throw the ball. In fact, with their offense rounding into form and the defense also ranking first against the run, teams have fallen behind and have been forced to find a way through this secondary.
Houston has allowed 40+ passing attempts in three of its last four games with an average of 40.8 per contest, and that should further incentivize the Chiefs to choose this course of action.
We’ll dive further into the limited damage Mahomes should ultimately inflict, but the key thing to know is that his attempts have come very close to the line of scrimmage, helping write the script for a high volume of throws as Kansas City looks to move the ball downfield.
Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Over 34.5 passing attempts
Under 238.5 passing yards
Although I expect no shortage of throws, even a busy day at the office could see Mahomes fail to eclipse his passing yards total.
Mahomes has fallen a bit in recent weeks after ranking just 12th in CPOE for the season, checking in with a mark of -0.4 in that department. Over the last two weeks, he’s completed just 57.3% of his passes and averaged 184.5 yards per game despite throwing a collective 75 times.
The veteran has been near the bottom of the league in Air Yards, ranking just 34th with 6.6 on average, and the Texans have allowed just 6.5 yards per pass.
This game should feature plenty of safe throws, particularly with the Texans picking off 11 passes in their last five contests, and that should afford us the chance to go for this juicy parlay. If you can get a number on Mahomes’ rushing yards prior to kickoff, I like mixing in his rushing Over for an added bonus.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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