Lamar Jackson Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets for Steelers vs Ravens

Lamar Jackson has taken major strides in becoming an accurate QB which is why Sam Farley is backing him for a pair of TD passes against Pittsburgh on Saturday.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Dec 20, 2024 • 15:30 ET • 4 min read
Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in a huge AFC North showdown on Saturday. 

While the Steelers may have won the first meeting, we have our eyes on the Lamar Jackson odds and believe he'll play a big role in earning the season split. 

Find out more in my NFL picks for Saturday, December 21. 

Lamar Jackson player prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Lamar Jackson prop pick

My best bet
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

We have a huge divisional clash on Saturday with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. The Ravens are one win back from the Steelers and will be hoping to level them with a victory. Central to the Ravens hopes is Lamar Jackson, who is currently second favorite to Josh Allen in the battle to be the NFL’s MVP. 

It’s been another incredible season for the 27-year-old and one that has shown his growth as a quarterback. He has just three rushing touchdowns, thanks to the arrival of Derrick Henry in Baltimore. He’s not rushing as much as the previous seasons and has become far more of a pocket passer. His QB rating is 120.7 and he’s thrown an impressive 34 touchdowns with just three interceptions. 

The last time these teams met we saw what was arguably the worst performance of Lamar’s season. He finished with as many touchdowns as interceptions, with one of each, and his lowest QB rating of the season so far, with 66.1. That was only in Week 11 but you’d think that on home turf, and with the learning experience of that game, we’ll see an improvement in Lamar’s play, as well as the play-calling. 

That was the last time that Jackson finished with under two passing touchdowns. Something that’s only happened five times in 14 games. What’s more impressive is that Lamar has thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven of his past eight games. Last week he threw five against a terrible Giants team, but he was exceptional and will bring that confidence into this game. 

Across the past three weeks, we’ve seen the Steelers allow multiple passing touchdowns in every game. Jalen Hurts and Jameis Winston both managed two passing touchdowns in the past fortnight and Joe Burrow managed three the week before that too.

Now that the Ravens’ offense is ticking and the likes of Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman are contributing it’s really helping Lamar, who has shown that he can consistently move the chains and find his players in the endzone.  

Lamar Jackson same-game parlay

Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Mark Andrew anytime touchdown

Justice Hill Over 18.5 receiving yards

In addition to our best bet, we’re going to back Mark Andrews to score a touchdown. It was a slow start to the season for the tight end, failing to score in the first five games of the season. Since then he’s scored eight touchdowns in nine games, including in each of the past three games. He’s a key red zone target for Jackson and will be targeted again when the Ravens get inside the 20.

For the final leg of this SGP, we’re going to back Justice Hill to have Over 18.5 receiving yards. Hill is the best pass-catching running back on the Ravens’ roster and has been getting more involved in recent weeks. He’s averaged 27.7 receiving yards per game across his past four games and has had at least five targets in three of those games. The Steelers have given up 35 receiving yards per game to opposition running backs and it’s Hill, not Derrick Henry, who stands to benefit most.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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