NFL Week 9 Odds: Best Spot Bets Include the Atlanta Falcons Covering Against Minnesota

NFL betting hits the midway mark with the Week 9 odds on the board, and the grind of the football schedule is in full swing.

Books and bettors have almost two months’ worth of data powering their projections, which means finding an underlying edge is even more valuable as the lines tighten in November. You can find those angles and advantages with situational handicapping — AKA spot bets.

I comb through the NFL odds and highlight my favorite letdown, look-ahead, and schedule spots to keep in mind when making your NFL picks for the upcoming slate.

Letdown Spot: Tennessee Titans (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Tennessee Titans scored 28 points in their win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. You know the last time they scored that many points? Week 18 of the 2021-22 season.

Adding to this peak performance from Tennessee was the debut of rookie QB Will Levis, who tied an NFL record with four touchdown passes in his first career start. That’s two more than QB1 Ryan Tannehill’s season total.

It’s a short week for the Titans to come down from this high and even before Levis balled out against the Falcons, Tannehill’s status for Week 9 was in doubt as he recovers from a bad ankle injury. That sends the rookie to Pittsburgh of all places for his first career road game.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have their own QB issues (Kenny Pickett likely out) but it’s this Pittsburgh defense that does the heavy lifting. The Steelers' stop unit sits Top 10 in pressure rate, blitzes at the fifth-highest clip, has 22 sacks, and has 15 total takeaways (seven INTs).

This Steel City crowd will also be a challenge for Tennessee’s young QB, with the “well-oiled” Terrible Towels drowning out play calls. The Titans already have a problem with false start penalties (11 on the season) whether they’re in Nashville or not. Oh, and starting RT Chris Hubbard is in concussion protocol on the short week. Not good.

Look-Ahead Spot: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Indianapolis Colts are the NFL equivalent of deep frying a turkey. And if you’ve ever watched the endless stream of “fail” videos about this process, you know that’s not a good thing.

Indianapolis is volatile since losing QB Anthony Richardson to injury, with QB2 Gardner Minshew making mustachioed magic one moment and then reminding us all why he’s a perennial backup the next. On top of that, the Colts' defense has come apart at the seams, sliding from 11th in EPA allowed per play in the first four games to 28th since Week 5.

And it’s not like Indy has played offensive powerhouses either. It's given up big yards and a ton of points to the likes of Cleveland and New Orleans — two offenses that were sputtering along under clashing with the Colts.

Enter the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers are in a similar boat as Indianapolis’ past foes, with the offense looking for a jump start. We saw improvements from the playbook in the win over Houston in Week 8, with Thomas Brown taking over the play calling. And while Carolina only scored 15 points, rookie QB Bryce Young enjoyed his best day as a pro (103.6 passer rating).

The Colts could have a tough time keeping focused on the Panthers in Week 9 with the team not only traveling but having to arrange logistics for an international affair in Germany in Week 10. Indianapolis will play New England in Frankfurt in the second of two Germany games.

For what it’s worth, NFL clubs haven’t been a great bet the week before making the jump over the pond. Since the international series picked back up post-COVID, featured teams are just 5-13-1 ATS the week before playing in Europe since 2021. That includes a 2-5 ATS mark this year, with Miami covering but Kansas City getting upset in Denver this past weekend.

Schedule Spot: Minnesota Vikings (+4) at Atlanta Falcons

When it rains it pours in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

The Minnesota Vikings were already in a tough schedule spot in Week 9, traveling to Atlanta for their second straight road game, third game in two weeks (thanks to MNF in Week 7), and third away tilt in four outings.

Then Kirk Cousins went down for the season with an Achilles injury in Week 8, leaving Minnesota with rookie backup Jaren Hall or practice squad QB Sean Mannion since QB2 Nick Mullens is on the IR.

The look-ahead line for this game was Atlanta Falcons -1 before Cousins was injured, putting his worth to the spread at a field goal. That adjustment to the spread seems a little short considering Cousins ranked Top 10 in many advanced passing metrics despite not having No. 1 target Justin Jefferson for the last three games.

Minnesota has played well on the road so far, but when you mix in the nasty schedule spot and quarterback quandary, as well as the Falcons' potential switching QBs to Taylor Heinicke (Arthur Smith can’t fight it anymore), Atlanta -4 starts to look promising.

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