NFL Week 9 Bet Now, Bet Later: How Low Will Fins-Chiefs Total Go?

When we were kids, we had a strategic system when it came to Trick-or-Treating on Halloween.

We’d quickly hit the new part of the subdivision that had plenty of duplexes, which meant getting two treats for every house. The value was there and ripe for the picking early in the evening.

Once our pillowcases were overflowing, we’d drop those off and grab a fresh sack for the old part of the neighborhood later in the night. 

See, nobody went to that part of the subdivision anymore. So, by the time we got there, folks were dumping half their treat stock in our bags just to get rid of it.

I take the same approach to the NFL Week 9 odds, grabbing the value with the opening spreads and totals now and then waiting to score more a little later in the week after the markets adjust.

Here are my "Bet Now, Bet Later" lines for NFL Week 9.

Week 9 bet now, bet later picks

• Cowboys at Eagles: Bet Now
• Titans at Steelers: Bet Later
• Colts at Panthers: Bet Now
• Dolphins at Chiefs: Bet Later

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cowboys at Eagles (-2.5): Bet Now

This massive NFC East matchup sees the Philadelphia Eagles getting less than a field goal at home to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9. And even though I’m a Cowboys fan, I’m grabbing the host under the key number.

Sure, Dallas looked dominant against the L.A. Rams, and the Eagles just barely came through for backers against the Commanders, but let’s not forget just how bad L.A. was supposed to be (and is starting to look like) and that Washington always gives Philly some pushback.

The Cowboys have been able to rough up some weaker foes this season, but the last time they faced a top-tier two-way team like Philadelphia, they ate a 42-10 loss to San Francisco. I believe the Eagles are even stronger.

Dallas is also dog shit on the road. The Cowboys erupted for 43 points inside Jerry’s World in Week 7 but are averaging only 21.5 points per game as a visitor, which is par for the course for this franchise.

I feel Philly will be able to do what it wants on offense, running the ball against a defense missing LB Leighton Vander Esch and passing against a secondary that has given up big plays since CB Trevon Diggs went down.

To paraphrase the great Beyonce, I don’t think Dallas is ready for all that jelly.

Best odds to bet Eagles -2.5 right now

Titans at Steelers (-2.5): Bet Later

The QB shuffle is the dance for Thursday Night Football in Week 9. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers could be starting backup Mitchell Trubisky with QB1 Kenny Pickett leaving Sunday’s loss with a rib injury. And the Tennessee Titans may give rookie QB Will Levis another go in place of the hobbled Ryan Tannehill, considering he threw for more touchdowns (4) in his first pro start than Tannehill has all season (2).

The books that do have an opening line on this game Sunday night have the Steelers sitting just short of field goal faves, with some shops opening -3 and then dropping to -2.5. 

Given the short week, Pickett’s status will likely be doubtful. And with Trubisky leaving a bad taste in bettors' mouths with his two INTs in the loss to Jacksonville, I expect this market to keep squeezing the Steelers downward.

Truth be told, though, the point spread impact between Pickett and Trubisky isn’t as much as you think. And if Levis gets the green light after his strong debut, we’ll have a rookie QB making his first road start inside Acrisure Stadium (it’ll always be Heinz Field to me) against one of the most disruptive defenses in the league.

If you’re not taking the Titans right away, wait and see how low the Steelers go before Thursday night.

Colts at Panthers (Over 43.5): Bet Now

It might not be the sexiest matchup on the Week 9 board, but with all the wild shit happening in Indianapolis Colts games the past three weeks, this could be the whackiest.

Indianapolis has seen 57, 77, and 65 total points scored in its last three games, all blowing away the Over/Under total. The Colts have allowed 114 of those 199 collective tallies and face a Carolina Panthers offense getting a new lease on life.

Carolina made the switch to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling plays coming off the Week 7 bye and the offense did look more dynamic in the Week 8 win over Houston, despite a 15-13 final score. 

Rookie QB Bryce Young passed for 235 yards and completed 71% of his throws for an average of 7.6 yards per attempt (passer rating of 103.6), which is night and day compared to his first five starts.

This Week 9 total opened as low as 43.5 but quickly jumped to as high as 45.5 in the first hour of action Sunday night. You can still shop around and find the O/U on the low end but go do it now. Then come back and read the rest of this article. GO!

Best odds to bet Over 43.5 right now

Dolphins at Chiefs (Over 50.5): Bet Later

The look-ahead total for this international showcase was as high as 54.5 points before the events of Week 8. 

Then, after the Dolphins won a sloppy 31-17 matchup with New England and the Chiefs were bottled up in a 24-9 upset to the Broncos, the opener hit the board at 51.5. Early money showed up on the Under and knocked this 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff in Germany down to 50 points.

I have to wonder if this total will continue to tick down, with the market reacting to another sub-par performance from Kansas City’s offense. On top of that, Patrick Mahomes suffered an injury to his non-throwing hand and a lot will be made of the stress of the overseas trip for these teams.

All that said, we have two pretty frickin’ great offenses taking the field in Frankfurt. The Fins have a ton of firepower and enter Week 9 as the top team in EPA per play. Miami also has a doo-doo defense that’s had its pants pulled down against quality competition, giving up big scores to the likes of the Bolts, Bills, and Eagles.

The Chiefs may be sputtering but we’ve seen them erupt against soft stop units — like the 31 points against the Chargers in Week 7 — and you have to give Mahomes and Andy Reid the benefit of the doubt. 

As for KC’s defense, it was among the best in the NFL to start the year but is starting to crumble. Nick Bolton is on IR and fellow LB Willie Gay Jr. left Sunday’s loss in Denver with a tailbone injury — just what you want when sitting on a plane for a 10-hour international flight.

Keep an eye on this total and see if it dips below 50 later this week. We could see public money on the Over show up closer to gameday considering the offenses involved, so don’t wait too long.

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