And just like that, the NFL playoffs are here! Before we get into the playoff action, let’s take a look back at the regular season betting results to see what stands out.
Favorites came out on top as far as spread betting goes, going 144-121-7, good enough for a cover rate of 54.3%. Road favorites were especially strong against the spread, closing the regular season with a 56.3 cover rate. Those throwing favorites into moneyline parlays and teasers likely had some success as well, as they were an outright winner in 71.7% of games.
As far as totals go, those who subscribe to the philosophy of ‘life’s too short to bet the Under’ came out on top as the Over hit in 54.1% of regular season games.
To help get you set for the wild card round of the playoffs, I’ve put together a list of my favorite NFL betting trends for every game. Take a look, crunch some numbers on your end, and determine if it makes sense to tail. Best of luck out there — see you for the Divisional Round!
Best NFL Wild Card Weekend betting trends
Chargers vs Texans
The trend: The Texans are 15-6-1 to the Under over their last 22 home games.
Low-scoring football in Houston has been pretty typical over the past few seasons, and this season was no exception, as Houston Texans home games averaged just 41.9 points per game. This could align strongly with a Los Angeles Chargers defense that travels extremely well, as they allowed a league-low 13.9 points per game on the road during the regular season. This game has a total of 42.5.
See all Chargers vs. Texans trends for Wild Card Weekend.
Steelers vs Ravens
The trend: The total has gone Under in eight of the last nine meetings.
The one that went Over was the most recent meeting a few weeks ago, where they combined for 51 points, but they failed to reach 40 points in the eight previous games, with five of the games being at 30 points or less. Thanks primarily to their offense falling apart, the Pittsburgh Steelers have gone Under in four of their last five games, while the Baltimore Ravens have held four straight opponents to 17 points or fewer. The total is set at 43.5.
See all Steelers vs. Ravens trends for Wild Card Weekend.
Broncos vs Bills
The trend: The Bills are an NFL-best 13-4 to the Over on their team total.
This includes going 7-1 to the Over at home, where they averaged a staggering 34.3 points per game. Denver’s defense has had some spotty performances down the stretch, allowing 30+ points in games vs. the Bengals, Chargers, and Browns, while they also allowed a 41-point game earlier in the season in Baltimore. Buffalo has crossed 30 points in three straight Wild Card Round games and has a team total of 28.5 in this matchup.
See all Broncos vs. Bills trends for Wild Card Weekend.
Packers vs Eagles
The trend: The Packers are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 3+ points.
Matt LaFleur does an excellent job of getting his team to play up to the competition. They’ve covered in nine straight in this spot, including in both instances this season. The Green Bay Packers have proven to be hard to pull away from, as their last three losses have come by three points or less. The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Packers in Week 1, but it was a back-and-forth game where the Packers led at halftime and won the yards per play battle 7.1 to 5.5. The Eagles are favored by 4.5 in Sunday’s game.
See all Packers vs. Eagles trends for Wild Card Weekend.
Commanders vs Buccaneers
The trend: These teams are a combined 22-9-3 to the first-half Over
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ first halves were especially high-scoring this season, averaging 28.8 combined points. Over Tampa Bay’s last four games, that number goes up to 32.5. Washington’s offense also got off to fast starts in the opening half, where they averaged 14 points, which is good enough for fifth overall. This game has a first-half total of 24.5.
See all Commanders vs. Buccaneers trends for Wild Card Weekend.
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