Following a hard-fought Game 7 win just two days ago, the Dallas Stars open their second-round matchup tonight vs. a rested Colorado Avalanche side who enter as a +100 road dog with a lofty total of 6.5.
Openers tend to be the loosest games in a series, and my Avalanche vs. Stars predictions focus on whether or not bettors will find value in tonight's early goal markets, as both clubs have shown a knack for scoring early goals so far in the postseason.
I break down the odds and offer my best NHL picks for Tuesday, May 7.
Avalanche vs Stars prediction
My best bet
First period Over 1.5 (-129 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
It’s a series between the top two teams in the first round in terms of expected goals/60. The Colorado Avalanche scored 28 goals in five games against the Winnipeg Jets, and although the Dallas Stars managed just 2.29 goals per game, there was scoring early in that series. Both of these teams can put up points.
That’s creating plenty of avenues for Over bets in the series opener. Generally, scoring is more prevalent early in a series, and goals are harder to come by as it goes on. Colorado had a 13-goal opening game in Round 1 while Dallas also saw its highest-scoring clash in Game 1 vs. Vegas.
With how well Valeri Nichushkin, Casey Mittelstadt, and Artturi Lehkonen are playing, Colorado has depth as it showed with 17 road goals vs. likely Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck. Dallas also has the scoring depth to match offense at home.
Both teams were very profitable in first-period scoring markets in the first round. The Avalanche saw both teams score in the first period in three of their five games vs. the Jets. Meanwhile, the Stars saw both teams to score in the first period in four of their seven games despite a low-scoring series.
I’m not saying bet both teams to score in the first frame tonight, although I like it at +160, but it’s a good indicator of what bettors should expect in the beginning of this series.
Dallas has loved early scoring in the playoffs as 50% of all its goals have come in the first 20 minutes. The Stars also averaged 2.14 total goals in the first frame in a series that averaged just 4.58 total goals per game. On the other side, the Avs averaged 2.4 total goals in the first frame vs. the Jets.
Both teams have scoring depth, Nathan MacKinnon is on a mission, each side has elite offensive defensemen, and I still don’t trust Alex Georgiev. Goals will be scored in this series, and I expect tonight will be the highest-scoring matchup.
Avalanche vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)
Both teams score in first period
Valeri Nichushkin Over 0.5 points
Wyatt Johnston Over 0.5 points
There won't be many games left in the playoffs where I can hit the Over markets on both teams, but Game 1 is a great spot. The public has already moved the opening total from 6 to 6.5 (-110 a side) as plenty of bettors expect goals tonight. Why not both leading goal scorers in Nichuskin and Wyatt Johnston for a point? Both looked great in Round 1 and if the previous four meetings this year are any indication of what to expect, goals will come as Colorado scored at least four times in all four meetings and no game saw fewer than six total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Avalanche vs Stars odds
Avalanche vs Stars live odds
Avalanche vs Stars opening odds
- Puck line: Colorado +1.5 (-225) | Dallas -1.5 (+196)
- Moneyline: Colorado +114 | Dallas -128
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-119) | Under 6 (+104)
Avalanche vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This total opened at 6 but the Over got hit hard and has moved this to 6.5 at -110 a side. The Avs have also moved about 10 points on the ML from an opening in some spots at +110 to today's +100 price.
- Colorado has taken seven of the last 10 meetings, including three of the four this year while scoring at least four goals in each game. At least six goals have been scored in each of the meetings this year.
- The Avalanche became only the fourth team in NHL history to score at least five goals in each of its first five games of the playoffs.
- Nichuskin and Lehkonen combined for 12 total goals in the first round of the playoffs while Dallas' top two scorers were Johnston (4) and Jason Robertson (3).
Play at Pinnacle: Offering 25 + years of betting experience
Make your Stanley Cup Playoffs wagers at Pinnacle, which offers Canadians unbeatable value with the most competitive odds in the industry and high limits — come find out why Pinnacle is home to better odds and better payouts!
Avalanche vs Stars trend
First period Over 1.5 (-129 at Pinnacle). Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Stars.
Avalanche vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-7-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, SN |
Avalanche vs Stars latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
