The Washington Capitals will try to bounce back from a "wild" loss as they welcome the Boston Bruins to the nation's capital on Monday night.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest between these familiar foes, with NHL betting lines installing the Caps as slim -120 home favorites to win against the team that eliminated them from last season's Stanley Cup playoffs.
Here are our best free NHL betting picks and predictions for Bruins vs. Capitals on Monday, January 10, with the puck dropping at 7 p.m. ET.
Bruins vs Capitals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened with Washington installed as a -115 home fave with the Over/Under at 5.5. Early money has come in on the Capitals, shifting this line to Washington -120.
When these teams last faced off, the Bruins won 3-1 as -127 road faves to knock the Caps out of the playoffs last May.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bruins vs Capitals predictions
Predictions made on 1/10/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bruins vs Capitals game info
• Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
• Date: Monday, January 10, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-DC, NESN
Bruins vs Capitals betting preview
Injuries
Bruins: Nick Foligno LW (Questionable), Charlie McAvoy D (Questionable), Jake DeBrusk LW (Out), Tomas Nosek LW (Out), Jakub Zboril D (Out).
Capitals: T.J. Oshie RW (Out), Nicklas Backstrom C (Out), Vitek Vanecek G (Out), Anthony Mantha RW (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Bruins vs Capitals head-to-head record in last 10
Bruins: 7-3, 33 goals for.
Capitals: 3-7, 26 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 9-2 in the Capitals' last 11 home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Capitals.
Bruins vs Capitals picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline/Puck line analysis
The Bruins are coming off a 5-2 win over the Lightning on Saturday and have gone 4-1 in their last five games. They are now in eighth place in the Eastern Conference with an 18-11-2 record while the Capitals are fifth with a 20-7-9 mark.
Washington has lost three games in a row after a whacky 3-2 shootout loss against the Wild on Saturday. The Caps had a 2-0 lead in that game before Carl Hagelin slid the puck all the way back into his own empty net on a delayed penalty before the Wild tied it up with just 30 seconds left in the third.
Goalie Vitek Vanecek is still unavailable for the Capitals due to a non-COVID illness, which means it's either Ilya Samsonov or Zach Fucale is in net. Samsonov is 13-3-3 with a 2.76 GAA and a save percentage of .903 but has struggled lately, getting chased after allowing four goals on 16 shots vs. the Blues on Friday after surrendering four goals in his previous start against the Devils.
The 26-year-old Fucale won the Memorial Cup with the Halifax Mooseheads in 2013 and has been buried in the minors for years, but he set the NHL record for the longest shutout streak to start a career on Saturday. He blanked the Red Wings in his NHL debut in November, didn't see the ice for Washington again until he stopped all seven shots he faced in relief of Samsonov against the Blues, and then didn't allow a goal against the Wild until the final minute of regulation.
These foes have met 10 times since March of last year with the Bruins winning seven of those contests — including the Bruins eliminating the Caps in five games during the first round of the playoffs. Despite that postseason result, that series was actually very close with the first three contests going into overtime and the Bruins needing netminder Tuukka Rask to steal Game 5.
Rask hasn't played since June after undergoing offseason hip surgery, but Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark have been holding down the fort for Boston with each posting an identical .918 SV% and combining for a 2.54 GAA.
It'll be interesting to see if the Capitals will have the guts to go with the unproven Fucale over the struggling Samsonov, but I expect them to go with experience over form. That would give the Bruins the clear advantage between the pipes with Ullmark a sizzling 7-2 with a 2.23 GAA and a .928 SV% in his last nine starts.
Boston also has a massive advantage in the faceoff circle, ranking fourth in the league with a faceoff win percentage of 54.4. Meanwhile, Washington is dead-last with a FOW% of just 45.7. While the Capitals have been the higher-scoring team over the course of the season, the Bruins have the edge when it comes to expected goals scored per 60 minutes and have been much better on the powerplay.
With Boston going 8-2 in its last 10 games on the road, back the Bruins to come away with a win today.
Prediction: Bruins moneyline (+100)
Over/Under analysis
The Bruins' attack has come alive lately, scoring at least four goals in four of their last five games while averaging 4.2 goals per game over that span. Boston has a fantastic top line with Patrice Bergeron centering Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, but the Bruins have also been getting better contributions from their second and third lines in recent weeks.
The Capitals are led by the ageless wonder Alexander Ovechkin (24 goals and 27 assists in 36 games) and blueline anchor John Carlson (32 points in 36 games). They rank eighth in the league with 3.33 goals per game while sitting sixth in goals per 60 minutes in 5v5 play. They'll likely need to find the back of the net tonight if they get another subpar performance from Samsonov, who has a 3.42 GAA with a .877 SV% in his last seven games.
With the Capitals going 9-2 O/U in their last 11 games, we're leaning towards the Over tonight.
Prediction: Over 5.5 (-115)
Best bet
Marchand leads the Bruins with 14 goals in 26 games and the pesky winger has been creating plenty of scoring chances. Marchand has totaled 11 shots in his last two games and is averaging 4.28 shots per game over his last 11 contests.
With the Over 2.5 on Marchand's shots total paying out at -130 and Marchand eclipsing that number in 10 of his last 11 games, don't hesitate to hammer that number.
Pick: Brad Marchand Over 2.5 shots (-130)
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