The championship of the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off is here, and the powerhouse Canadians and Americans will hit the ice at TD Garden to settle the score on Thursday, February 20.
My top Canada vs. USA predictions and free betting picks favor the Americans to take care of business in Beantown, thanks in large part to captain Auston Matthews.
Canada vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)
Team USA moneyline
Over 5.5
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer
The No. 1 reason I like Team USA to win is due to its goaltending advantage. Two-time Vezina winner Conor Hellebuyck is playing at a career-best level, having stopped 45 of 47 shots for a .957 save percentage in the tournament, while sporting an NHL-best .925 SV%, 2.06 GAA, and .064 goals saved above average per 60 minutes during the regular season.
Team Canada No. 1 Jordan Binnington hasn’t played to the same level. He’s sporting a .892 SV% across his three 4 Nations starts, and he’s posted a ho-hum .897 mark across his 39 NHL appearances this season.
What worries me most about Binnington, though, is that he’s actually turned away 24 of the 25 high-danger shots (.960 SV%) he’s faced in this tournament. Considering he posted a .807 SV% against high-danger shots for the St. Louis Blues this year, I’m expecting that to be a trend that’s tough for him to maintain.
Meanwhile, both teams should have some offensive success. There are oodles of high-end and secondary scorers on both benches, and there have been seven or more goals in four of the six round-robin games.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, USA captain Auston Matthews was solid in his two round-robin games without finding the back of the net. He’s also now gone eight straight contests without a goal dating back to the NHL regular season.
Matthews has led the American forwards in ice time in both his 4 Nations games, and he recorded two shots, six attempts, and three scoring chances — including a rush chance and a high-danger scoring chance against Canada. He also piled up 27 shots on 46 attempts while generating 3.2 expected goals during the noted six-game NHL goal drought.
Pair his unparalleled shooting arsenal with the go-to role, and No. 34 snaps the scoring skid Thursday.
Check out my Canada vs. USA prop predictions for even more picks and analysis ahead of tonight's final.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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