The Ottawa Senators punched a postseason ticket for the first time in seven seasons, and they’ll face the Toronto Maple Leafs to rev up the latest edition of the Battle of Ontario in Round 1 of the 2025 NHL playoffs.
Despite being under the microscope for past postseason failure, Toronto is still a healthy favorite to top Ottawa in the opening round.
Regardless, my NHL picks expect the Sens to show up and make life difficult for the Leafs.
All odds courtesy of SIA.
Senators vs Maple Leafs series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 Ottawa Senators (+155) |
To win |  Maple Leafs (-189) |
| Ottawa Senators +1.5 (-143) |
Handicap | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+250) |
| Over 5.5 (-175) | Total games | Under 5.5 (+145) |
The odds are calling for a back-and-forth series, with both the Over 5.5 games and Senators +1.5 handicap carrying chalk. Only the Eastern Conference series between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers has tighter odds.
Senators vs Maple Leafs series preview
Senators statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Since 4-Nations Face-Off | Since Trade Deadline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF% | 50.1 (15th) | 48.9 (18th) | 48.9 (18th) |
| Adjusted CF% | 50.1 (14th) | 48.5 (20th) | 49.3 (17th) |
| GF% | 47.0 (25th) | 49.5 (17th) | 50.6 (18th) |
| xGF% | 49.4 (20th) | 48.1 (20th) | 48.9 (18th) |
| Adjusted xGF% | 49.6 (18th) | 47.9 (19th) | 49.1 (17th) |
| Team SH% | 7.6 (30th) | 9.6 (16th) | 12.8 (1st) |
| Team SV% | .913 (12th) | .911 (14th) | .910 (16th) |
| PDO | 100.7 (9th) | 100.7 (12th) | 100.7 (15th) |
| PP% | 24.0 (7th) | 24.7 (12th) | 25.0 (10th) |
| PK% | 77.7% (19th) | 76.6% (18th) | 81.6 (12th) |
The Ottawa Senators don’t have any glaring weaknesses or standout strengths statistically. The Senators have strong special-teams numbers, and they’ve seen their PDO improve as the season has progressed.
Notably, Ottawa has the lowest goals for percentage at five-on-five among playoff teams, which could be problematic considering the Toronto Maple Leafs rank fourth. Additionally, if the Sens' power play doesn’t take advantage of a potential mismatch against the Leafs' penalty kill, the gap in 5-on-5 scoring could be too much to overcome.
Maple Leafs statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Since 4-Nations Face-Off | Since Trade Deadline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF% | 47.7 (29th) | 43.7 (32nd) | 42.7 (32nd) |
| Adjusted CF% | 47.7 (24th) | 45.0 (31st) | 44.2 (30th) |
| GF% | 55.4 (4th) | 57.6 (6th) | 60.3 (3rd) |
| xGF% | 48.5 (23rd) | 46.2 (29th) | 47.5 (23rd) |
| Adjusted xGF% | 48.8 (23rd) | 47.4 (22nd) | 48.8 (19th) |
| Team SH% | 9.4 (11th) | 11.0 (5th) | 10.7 (7th) |
| Team SV% | .926 (3rd) | .929 (3rd) | .939 (2nd) |
| PDO | 102.1 (2nd) | 103.9 (2nd) | 104.6 (2nd) |
| PP% | 24.8 (9th) | 28.4 (4th) | 28.9 (4th) |
| PK% | 77.9 (17th) | 73.2 (27th) | 73.0 (29th) |
The underlying 5-on-5 numbers and penalty kill are major concerns for the Leafs. They’ve masked those shortcomings with elite goal scoring and goaltending, which usually isn’t sustainable long term.
Despite playing with the lead at a good clip all year long, the gap between Toronto’s possession and expected goals percentages at 5-on-5 doesn’t improve considerably when adjusted for score and venue.
Still, Toronto has dominated goals at 5-on-5 with a plus-33 differential for the season, and the Leafs' power play is a game-changing advantage. It’s a nice luxury to have in front of the consistent, high-end goaltending that Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have provided.
All statistics are at five-on-five except power-play percentage and penalty-kill percentage.
Senators vs Maple Leafs series props
Senators vs Maple Leafs correct score odds
| Team | To win 4-0 | To win 4-1 | To win 4-2 | To win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators |
+1800 | +900 | +550 | +550 |
| Maple Leafs |
+800 | +400 | +425 | +390 |
Pick: Maple Leafs to win 4-2 (+425 at SIA)
In addition to the highlighted statistical nuggets, the Leafs have been excellent on the road this season, while the Senators have largely struggled. Ottawa dropped four of its final five road games to go 18-19-4 on the highway for the campaign.
The Sens also ranked 29th in goals and 23rd in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 away from the Canadian Tire Center. Those marks rank last among postseason teams, too. For comparison, the Maple Leafs respectively ranked fourth and 15th.
Toronto also paced the NHL with an 11-4-1 road record out of the 4 Nations Face-Off to pave the way to go 19-6-2 overall. The Maple Leafs have the star power to mask their shortcomings, and I’m skeptical Ottawa can score enough to win more than two games in Round 1.
Senators vs Maple Leafs total games odds
| Under | Total Games | Over |
|---|---|---|
| +550 | 4.5 | -909 |
| +145 | 5.5 | -175 |
| -278 | 6.5 | +200 |
Pick: Over 5.5 games (-175 at SIA)
Even with the strong production on the road from Toronto, Ottawa has taken care of business on home ice this season. The Sens boast a 27-11-3 record while allowing the eighth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes and ranking 10th in Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5.
Sens No. 1 netminder Linus Ullmark should show up and give the Maple Leafs his best. Ullmark’s postseason numbers don’t jump off the page (3-6 record with an .887 SV%), but he does have more playoff experience than both Toronto starters.
Goaltending, excellent special teams, and home-ice advantage can pave the way for multiple Ottawa wins.
Senators vs Maple Leafs top goalscorer
Pick: Drake Batherson (+450 at SIA)
Sens winger Drake Batherson will log big minutes in a top-six role while also skating with the No. 1 power-play unit, and his 54 goals and 47.2 expected goals over the past two years rank second on the club.
Batherson and linemates Dylan Cozens and David Perron could see softer minutes than Ottawa’s No. 1 line of Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Claude Giroux. I also anticipate the third line centered by Shane Pinto to play a defensive role.
Additionally, Batherson has finished the season strong with 10 tallies across the final 18 games, while pacing Ottawa in shots and high-danger scoring chances.
Senators vs Maple Leafs series best bet
Pick: Maple Leafs to win series (-189 at SIA)
Make no mistake, I’m skeptical of Toronto making a deep playoff run because of the long-term unsustainability of drastically losing the 5-on-5 possession and expected goals battles. As the competition improves, relying on lights-out goaltending and timely scoring to win becomes even more improbable.
However, Ottawa isn’t good enough to pull off the opening-round upset. The Sens lack the scoring power and playoff experience, while the 5-on-5 possession numbers don’t show off a relentless attack capable of beating the Leafs.
Plus, for all the noted shade thrown over Toronto, the Leafs allowed the eighth-fewest goals per game and third-fewest per 60 at 5-on-5. Toronto also finished with the second-most wins and the fourth-highest points percentage.
