The Montreal Canadiens are set to wrap up a four-game road trip tonight when they head to T-Mobile Arena to take on the Vegas Golden Knights.
Vegas, which suddenly finds itself in the race for top spot in the Western Conference thanks to some strong goaltending, comes into the contest as a huge -298 home favorite.
Find out if Vegas’ goaltending can carry them to a third straight victory in our Canadiens vs Golden Knights NHL picks and predictions for Sunday, March 5.
Canadiens vs Golden Knights best odds
Canadiens vs Golden Knights picks and predictions
Montreal suffered its second straight loss and third in four games on Friday as the offense came up short for the Canadiens once again versus the Ducks. After two consecutive 5-2 wins over the Devils and Flyers, the Canadiens have scored just nine goals through their last four contests — more in line with the club’s 27th-ranked offense (2.68 GPG).
With captain Nick Suzuki standing as Montreal’s only active 20-goal scorer this season since Cole Caufield went down with season-ending shoulder surgery in late January, it’s easy to see why the Canadiens have struggled to put the puck in the net. They’ve been bit pretty hard by the injury bug this season, as top-six forwards Kirby Dach, Sean Monahan, and Brendan Gallagher also remain out.
Vegas isn’t the strongest offensive team itself (3.15 GPG, 17th), but the Golden Knights own a Top-10 defense (2.76 GAPG) which has actually improved since starting goaltender Logan Thompson was sidelined in mid-February.
Adin Hill has stepped up admirably between the pipes, going 4-1-0 in his last eight appearances while posting a .203 GAA and a .927 SV% since Feb. 7 — the second-best mark in the NHL behind only Colorado’s Alexandar Georgiev (.929 SV%).
Over his last two starts, the 26-year-old held the Devils and Hurricanes — two of the NHL’s top three teams — to just five goals combined, while setting a franchise record with 46 saves in Friday’s win over New Jersey.
Hill will get the night off though, as Jonathan Quick will make his first start for a team other than the Los Angeles Kings. Quick is in the midst of arguably his worst season as a professional, but he’s playing behind a much better defense in this spot.
Even without Hill in net, I would still support the Under on total goals for Montreal.
My best bet: Montreal Under 2.5 goals (-155 at BetMGM)
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Canadiens vs Golden Knights moneyline analysis
The Canadiens are in full-on tank mode for the rest of the season, as they’ve been decimated by injuries and sit 26th in the league’s overall standings. Montreal has actually picked up the pace with six wins in 11 contests since the All-Star break, but it’s hard to foresee them pulling off the road upset over a hot Vegas team.
The Golden Knights are 8-1-2 over that same span, with their 18 points tied for the second-most in the NHL since teams returned to play on Feb. 6. Interestingly, they’ve continued to score at a decent clip (3.45 GPG) despite having an ice-cold power play, which is converting on just 4.6% of its opportunities since the break. Vegas has torched opponents at even strength over that span, though, with their 32 goals at 5-on-5 tied for fourth-most in the NHL.
In terms of head-to-head meetings, Vegas has won three straight over Montreal going back to last season. The last time the Canadiens defeated the Golden Knights was actually during the 2021 Conference Finals, when they beat Vegas in six games to advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
Given that Carey Price isn’t with the team to save the day this time around, the Golden Knights would be my choice tonight.
Canadiens vs Golden Knights Over/Under analysis
The Under has cashed in three straight contests for Montreal, and three of the last four games for Vegas, though for different reasons. The Canadiens don’t have the talent to put the puck in the net, while the Golden Knights have benefited from some tidy defense and clutch goaltending.
The total for tonight opened at 6, and while the Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between the teams, I lean towards taking the Under instead.
While there is a chance that the Golden Knights run away with this one, I don’t see their offense being strong enough to put up more than four goals given that the power play has basically been a black hole. Montreal has shown some signs of defensive improvement since the All-Star break, too, ranking 11th in the league with 2.91 GAPG, so it’s not like it’ll be a cakewalk for Vegas tonight.
Canadiens vs Golden Knights betting trend to know
The Golden Knights are 7-1 in their last eight home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs Golden Knights.
Canadiens vs Golden Knights game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, March 5, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN2, ATTSN Rocky Mountain |
Canadiens vs Golden Knights key injuries
