In Tuesday's lone nationally televised game, the Chicago Blackhawks host the Washington Capitals on ESPN.
Washington has started to turn things around recently amidst Alex Ovechkin’s quest for 800 goals, while Chicago continues to cement its home in the basement of the league standings.
Where does the betting value lie in tonight's contest? Find out in our NHL picks and predictions for Capitals vs. Blackhawks below.
Capitals vs Blackhawks best odds
Capitals vs Blackhawks picks and predictions
The Washington Capitals enter this matchup amidst a four-game winning streak, covering the puck line in all four of those games. This contest should be no different as they boast the advantage in every category one could think of.
At 5-on-5, Washington ranks 19th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 16th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Meanwhile, the Hawks rank just 31st and 29th, respectively, in those two categories.
Chicago’s lineup is almost laughable in its quest to tank for Connor Bedard, which is why it traded every key piece outside of Patrick Kane during the offseason. Even Kane is likely to get dealt before this year’s trade deadline, which will be a sad but necessary day for both Kane and Hawks fans alike.
Its offense has no depth outside of the top six while the defense bleeds goals at an extraordinarily high rate. Backing up this terrible defense is goaltender Petr Mrazek, who is the confirmed starter for Chicago.
It has been a terribly difficult season for Mrazek in his stint with Chicago, which is both due to his play and the team in front of him. Through nine starts, he is 2-5-1 with a .884 save percentage and 4.06 goals against average.
Based on his metrics, positive regression is unlikely for the veteran netminder. If he qualified, Mrazek would rank dead last among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
Across the ice, goaltender Charlie Lindgren is projected to get the start for the Caps. Through 12 appearances in the crease this season, Lindgren boasts a .910 SV% and 2.79 GAA.
While his metrics are not the best either, he's still ranked well ahead of Mrazek in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. In this game, Washington boasts the better offense, defense, and goaltender.
The one thing the Hawks do decently is score on the power play. However, the Caps rank 10th in penalty minutes and seventh in penalty kill percentage.
No need to overthink this one, Washington should win and cover.
My best bet: Capitals -1.5 (+140 at DraftKings)
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Capitals vs Blackhawks moneyline analysis
Typically, I don't like taking the puck line for a favorite, even against a team like Chicago. However, +140 is too juicy of a price to pass up.
Additionally, Washington is a team that's aggressive when opposing teams pull their goalie, which is mostly due to Alex Ovechkin and his quest for 800 goals. Ovi scored an empty netter in each of Washington’s last three games, so even if the Caps are only up by one late, I trust Ovi to help us out.
Meanwhile, the Hawks have lost nine of their last 12 games by two or more goals.
Capitals vs Blackhawks Over/Under analysis
The Blackhawks are a tough team to take totals on because they are one of the few squads in the league that struggles to both score and shut down opposing offenses.
Their lack of scoring options offensively would suggest taking the Under, but their uninspired defense is also capable of allowing teams to score six goals.
This offense should struggle to score on Lindgren and the Capitals' defense. Meanwhile, Ovi will look for the hat-trick tonight to enter the 800-goal club against a poor defense and goaltender Petr Mrazek.
As is typically the case for Chicago this season, the total is too tough to judge in this contest given the circumstances.
Capitals vs Blackhawks betting trend to know
The Chicago Blackhawks have lost by two or more goals in nine of their last 12 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs Blackhawks.
Capitals vs Blackhawks game info
| Location: | United Center, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 13, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
