Capitals vs Flyers Picks and Predictions: Washington Whips Freefalling Philly

The Washington Capitals apparently don't like home cooking, as they've been significantly better playing out of a suitcase and will look to keep the road momentum rolling when they visit the Philadelphia Flyers tonight.

The Caps have won four straight on the road and are massive NHL betting favorites to make it five straight against the Flyers, who just barfed up a third-period lead in a tough loss to rival Pittsburgh two days ago and are continuing a brutal freefall.

The Washington moneyline doesn't seem like the best play for our Capitals vs. Flyers free NHL picks and predictions — but read on the see where the value lies for this Thursday, February 17 contest.

Capitals vs Flyers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Capitals opened as -175 road favorites, with the Flyers at +154. At the time of writing, that line has generally stayed in the same range, although some books are going go as low as Washington -200 — a significant change from when the Caps closed at -157 in their previous game with the Flyers... in Washington. The total sits at the opening line of 6, with some books offering a -110 each way and others shading towards the Under.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Capitals vs Flyers predictions

• Prediction: Capitals 3ML (-109)
• Prediction: Capitals team total Over 3.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Capitals 3ML (-109)

Predictions made on 2/17/2022 at 12:36 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Capitals vs Flyers game info

• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Thursday, February 17, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-Washington, NBCS-Philadelphia

Capitals vs Flyers betting preview

Key injuries

Capitals: Justin Schultz D (Out), T.J. Oshie RW (Out), Anthony Mantha RW (Out), Vitek Vanecek G (Out).
Flyers: Sean Couturier C (Out), Kevin Hayes C (Out), Joel Farabee LW (Out), Ryan Ellis D (Out), Rasmus Ristolainen D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Capitals vs Flyers head-to-head record (since 2020)

Capitals: 6-3-0, 34 goals for.
Flyers: 3-5-1, 26 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Flyers are 3-13 in their last 16 divisional games. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Flyers.

Capitals vs Flyers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Capitals' home/road splits are truly fascinating stuff, with the team having won four straight road games (and boast a 15-5-4 road record this season) but having lost five straight at home, eight of their last time at Capital One Arena, and sporting a 12-10-5 home record this year.

So, we're in a weird situation where it appears it's a good thing the Caps are playing on the road tonight, based on those home/road records, but the reality is that their advanced stats are somewhat similar.

Since January 1, at 5 on 5, the Caps have a positive Corsi For Percentage at home and are 12th in expected goals for per 60 minutes at 2.63 (per Natural Stat Trick), while on the road they have a 46.9 5-on-5 CF%, sit 29th in xGF/60 (2.1), and have an almost identically-weak penalty kill (72.4% at home, 75% away) and mediocre power play (14.3% at home, 20% away).

So, why have they gone 2-7-1 at home and 5-2-1 on the road since the new year? Luck and goaltending.

Washington has scored 0.68 fewer goals per 60 than expected while in away games it's scoring .38 more goals per 60 than expected — that's the luck side. Then, the Caps have given up .31 more goals than expected at home and surrendered a whopping 1.12 goals/60 fewer than expected in road games — attributed to goaltending that has been poor at home (23rd in the league with a .900 SV% overall) and stellar on the road (second with a .958 SV%).

More specifically, it's the play of tonight's starter Ilya Samsonov, who has a 4.18 GAA, .866 SV%, and -1.37 goals saved above average in six 2022 home games against a 2.48 GAA, .935 SV%, and still-disappointing -0.86 GSAA on the road. He's been excellent in his last three road games (against Nashville, Montreal, and Pittsburgh), while he's been lit up at home recently against the likes of Ottawa, Columbus, Edmonton.

The moral of the story is that Washington as a whole actually plays better at home... but Samsonov has been noticeably better in the road whites — and he should welcome facing the free-falling Flyers tonight.

Philly led rival Pittsburgh 4-2 with 7:24 left in the third period, then proceeded to blow that lead and lost in overtime. It was the third straight defeat for the Flyers and — wait for it — the 16th loss in their last 18 games. The roster has been crushed by major injuries, the remaining bodies have struggled, and the most pressing news is when (not if) longtime captain Claude Giroux (and others) get traded away.

The Flyers have also been punished in the possession game, posting a sub-50% Corsi For in six of their last seven games, while tonight's starter Martin Jones has given up at least three goals in eight of his last nine appearances, with a 4.12 GAA, .887 SV%, and -4.72 GSAA during that span.

As much as Washington's special teams have struggled in 2022, Philly's have been even worse. The Flyers are 29th overall with an 11.8% success rate with the man advantage (8.3% at home), and the penalty kill is dead-last at 63.6% (albeit 77.8% on home ice).

The Caps have been inconsistent this year but Philadelphia is downright awful — AND is starting its struggling backup. Despite being big ML favorites, we can get Washington as low as -109 to win in regulation — sign us up.

Prediction: Capitals 3-way moneyline (-109)

Over/Under analysis

Neither Washington nor Philadelphia have been leaning towards one side of the Over/Under train on the season — the Caps are 26-23 O/U and Flyers are 24-24 — but Philly has been giving up goals in droves as of late, giving up 3+ goals in eight of its last 10 games, cashing the Over in seven of them.

Washington has hit two straight Unders but that comes on the heels of four straight Overs (which was preceded by four straight Unders and three consecutive Overs), although the biggest takeaway is that the Caps are scoring goals again, potting 4+ goals in five of their last seven games.

We're expecting the Caps to do the heavy lifting for this total, considering their facing a leaky Flyers defense and a shaky goaltender in Jones, but Philly has scored at least two goals in six straight and seven of its last eight, so they should contribute enough to get this Over tonight's total.

Doubling back to the Caps, however, we would also have no problem sprinkling down on the Caps team total tonight — in fact, it's our preferred Over/Under play.

Prediction: Capitals team total Over 3.5 (-105)

Best bet

The Capitals are a playoff team and the Flyers are downright dreadful.

These teams have played once this season: a 2-1 Flyers win that was quite misleading. Washington had 3.46 expected goals (compared to Philadelphia's 1.87) and was shut down by Jones in what was arguably his best game of the season... at the beginning of the year when he was playing well — and he has since fallen off a cliff.

Despite that misstep, Washington has won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings and, again worth noting: the Flyers are currently in one of the worst stretches in franchise history.

With a week off after tonight's contest as well, there's no worry about a trap game for the Caps. Getting them in regulation at -109 is just way too tempting to pass up.

Pick: Capitals 3-way moneyline (-109)

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