The Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers will meet for the third time this year on Thursday in Pennsylvania. The season series is knotted up at one win apiece.
Coincidentally, both clubs come into this mid-week matchup fresh off their own 5-4 overtime wins on Tuesday. Every point is important in the East Division, with only seven points separating first and fifth place.
Oddsmakers have the home team as a slight -105 underdog with the total opening at 6.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Washington Capitals vs. Philadelphia Flyers for Thursday, March 11 (7:00 p.m. ET).
Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers betting preview
Injuries
Capitals: Tom Wilson F (Out).
Flyers: Michael Raffl F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The favorite is 20-7 SU in the last 27 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Flyers.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPhiladelphia opened a nominal -112 favorite at TwinSpires and is up to -118 as of 4 p.m. ET. It's two-way action on the moneyline, with 53 percent of bets on the Capitals and 57 percent of money on the Flyers. The total is stable at 6, with just a modest price adjustment from Over -120 to -124, and the Over is landing 78 percent of bets/77 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
Over the last 30 days, the Washington Capitals have been the better team, with a 9-3-1 record, while the Flyers have been treading .500 hockey, going 5-4-1 in their last 10. Over that stretch, Philly has struggled to score compared to its early-season success and boasts the league’s fifth-worst power-play and 11th-worst penalty-kill.
Philadelphia is coming off a 5-4 OT win versus the offensively inept Sabres in which they trailed 4-1 late into the second. The Flyers don’t play the most disciplined hockey and can be a rollercoaster sometimes to back. Since Feb. 10, the Flyers have led four times after the first frame (ten games) and have walked away with just two wins.
The Flyers' backend has also not been a highlight of the season. As a team, they rank 28th in save percentage and goalie Carter Hart is coming off a game where he allowed three goals on eight shots before being replaced. The Flyers have given up at least three goals in five straight games.
The Caps will likely go with goalie Ilya Samsonov on Thursday. The young goalie has come back from COVID and played great in the crease, stopping 61 of 65 shots and picking up a pair of wins in two starts. It was just last Sunday that Samsonov and the Capitals picked up two points with a 3-1 win versus the Flyers — a game where the Washington goalie was the difference.
The visitors are 6-1 SU over their last seven games which includes wins against the Flyers, Bruins and Penguins. Away favorites are hitting at nearly 63 percent this year and that’s where we are leaning on Thursday night.
PREDICTION: Washington ML (-115)
Over/Under pick
Both clubs are a combined 29-19 O/U on the year, as they're both averaging over three goals per match. The Flyers’ sloppy hockey has helped them go 4-1 O/U in their last five, with the only Under being the 3-1 loss to Washington — a game that had a total of 5.7 expected goals.
Both teams should be able to help push the total, as Philadelphia has allowed at least three goals in 11 of their last 14 games and will likely start backup Brian Elliot. The veteran goalie has posted goals against averages of 2.55 or higher over the three previous seasons, which makes his current 2.29 GAA a slight outlier that is due for regression. Over his career, Elliott has unspectacular numbers versus the Capitals, including a sub-.900 save percentage and a 3.09 GAA.
The Flyers have been the league’s best shooters this season, pacing the league with an 11.37 shooting percentage at even strength. Philadelphia is healthy and rolling out three strong lines that all contributed at least one goal in Tuesday’s win.
The Capitals have been playing neutral hockey of late, as their offense has been scoring but the defense has also been getting tagged. Over the last 30 days, Washington is scoring at a rate higher than its season average (3.07 goals per game) but is also conceding 3.00 goals per game. Only two other teams in the league have more combined goals per game than Washington since February 8.
The Caps carried a 4-1 lead heading into the third period on Tuesday and allowed three straight 5x5 goals to tie the game up. Giving up goals in bunches is nothing new for the East’s No. 2 team.
The first meeting of these two teams saw a total of 11 goals scored and if it wasn’t for the heroics of Samsonov, the second meeting could have hit the Over, as well. We’re doing what we’ve been doing all year: riding the Capitals and Flyers with the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 6 (-110)
Capitals vs Flyers betting card
- Washington ML (-115)
- Over 6 (-110)
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