The NHL returns to action after the 4 Nations Face-Off with 14 games on the betting slate tonight, including an Eastern Conference clash between the Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.
It’s a fairly quick turnaround for Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews after playing into overtime on Thursday evening for Team Canada and USA, so my Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes predictions expect Toronto to lean on John Tavares.
Find out which prop market I’m backing Tavares in with my free NHL picks for this Saturday, February 22 matchup at 7 p.m. ET on CBC.
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes prediction
My Leafs pick
John Tavares Over 2.5 shots on goal (+130 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Carolina Hurricanes tonight to kick off the post-4 Nations part of the schedule. The Buds won three of four games on the road before the break, whereas the Canes went 1-3 heading into the tournament.
Both teams had multiple players participating in the 4 Nations Face-Off, and there’s a possibility that those players have their minutes scaled back, especially with it being night one of a back-to-back.
Thus, I’m targeting one of the non-participants of the tournament for my Maple Leafs best bet tonight, John Tavares.
The former Leafs captain certainly wished he’d have been chosen by Team Canada, but it was probably best for Toronto that Tavares ended up getting a long midseason rest instead. Typically, the Leafs' pivot plays extremely well after being given time off to rest his legs, and that freshness will pay off tonight.
Carolina typically showcases a well-structured defense, but Toronto has a good track record of finding ways to get pucks through and pepper the Canes' goalies with shots.
Toronto is averaging 35.4 shots on net in its five meetings against Carolina, with Tavares averaging 3.6 himself over that stretch.
Tavares has not been shooting as much lately, hitting the Over only twice over his last seven outings, but he’s averaging 2.72 shots per game this season, and the break should give him a boost in his legs to get there.
Additionally, my expectation is for him to get more ice time than usual given the amount of high-intensity hockey Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner played over the last week compared to everyone else. This should allow him to get more shifts, resulting in more shots.
Lastly, the Canes have given up an average of 29.75 shots per game over their last four games. Their best shutdown defenseman, Jacob Slavin, played heavy minutes for USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off and might he be a little worn after a painful and physical loss Thursday night. If so, those minutes are hard to replace for Carolina.
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes same-game parlay (SGP)
John Tavares 3+ shots on goal
Auston Matthews 3+ shots on goal
Auston Matthews anytime goal
We’ll stick to shot props given the Leafs track record of running up the shot counter against Carolina. For the second leg, I’ll take Matthews to record 3+ shots on net. He’s coming off a four-shot performance in the championship game against Canada and hit this mark in each of the final five games before the break.
Ultimately, one of those Matthews shots goes in. AM34 hasn’t scored since January 22. That includes the three games he played at the 4 Nations Face-Off. I’m not sure he’s ever gone on a skid quite like this and he was so dangerous for the Americans in the final that I think he gets one to drop tonight to end the goalless streak.
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Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes odds
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes live odds
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 (-250) | Carolina -1.5 (+200)
- Moneyline: Toronto -105 | Carolina -115
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (+100)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes trend
The Toronto Maple Leafs have covered the Puck Line in 46 of their last 89 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Saturday, 2-22-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes latest injuries
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