The Detroit Pistons continue to be the best story of the NBA season. With a 40-32 record, they look destined to make the playoffs for the first time since 2018-19.
Tonight, Cade Cunningham & Co. will look for their suffocating defense to take over when they play host to the stumbling San Antonio Spurs. That D has my Spurs vs. Pistons predictions focused on a player prop for what could be a tough night for a certain San Antonio player.
Check out that and more NBA picks for this game set to tip off at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit at 7:00 pm ET on Tuesday March 25.
Spurs vs Pistons prediction
My best bet: Stephon Castle Under 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Detroit Pistons' ascension has been fun to watch this season.
Cade Cunningham looks like he’s going to live up to the billing as a former No. 1-overall pick, averaging 25.7 points, 9.2 assists, and 6.1 rebounds per game. But it’s not just Cunningham. This is a solid young core with Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, and Jaden Ivey (even though he’s injured).
And it’s not just about getting buckets for this young team. The Pistons have also turned into a great defensive unit under head coach J.B. Bickerstaff.
Detroit ranks ninth in defensive rating and 12th in opponent effective field goal percentage and I like this group to have success shutting down the San Antonio Spurs tonight.
What looked like a promising season has quickly gone downhill after season-ending injuries to Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox.
That has put a lot of the Spurs’ scoring on the shoulders of rookie Stephon Castle. For his part, he’s stepped up, averaging 20 points per game over 13 March games. So, it’s not surprising to see his point total prop sitting at 20.5.
However, even though Castle has had some success recently, he has stayed below 20 points in six of his last nine games, shooting just 30% from 3-point range. And you know the Pistons are going to key in on him defensively.
Give me Under 20.5 points for Castle in what should be a tough matchup.
Spurs vs Pistons same-game parlay
Stephon Castle Under 20.5 points
Chris Paul Under 6.5 assists
Pistons team total Over 121.5
If Castle isn’t scoring, it probably means Chris Paul isn’t handing out a ton of assists either. Paul is averaging 7.7 assists per game this season, but that is down to 5.8 over his last six games, having topped 6.5 just twice over that span. And now he faces a Pistons defense that has allowed the second-fewest assists per game since the All-Star break.
But it’s not all defense for the Pistons. If Cunningham is good to go, they should put up some points against a Spurs defense that has fallen apart without Wemby.
In the last six games where the Pistons have been favored by 6.5 or more, they have averaged 127 points per game, scoring at least 123 in five of them.
They are 10.5-point faves against a Spurs team that has the third-worst defensive rating since the break. Over 121.5 team total for Detroit to close out this SGP which can be profit boosted by 30% at bet365 tonight.
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Spurs vs Pistons odds
Spurs vs Pistons live odds
Spurs vs Pistons opening odds
- Spread: San Antonio +8.5 (-110) | Detroit -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Antonio +300 | Detroit -380
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 (-110) | Under 232.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Spurs vs Pistons spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pistons opened this NBA matchup as 8.5-point home favorites, but that wasn't enough to scare off early bettors who have moved the spread to 10.5.
- These teams met back on Feb. 21, with the Pistons closing as 4.5-point road favorites. The Spurs still had De'Aaron Fox in that game, so a line opening at 8.5 for a game in Detroit makes sense this time around. Particularly, considering that the Pistons won that game handily 125-110.
- The Pistons have cashed the Over in three straight games, but I'm not sure if the Spurs will generate enough offense against this solid Detroit defense to send the Over again.
Spurs vs Pistons trend
The Pistons have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 61 games for +15.80 Units and a 23% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Pistons.
How to watch Spurs vs Pistons
| Location | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TV 20 Detroit, FanDuel Sports Network-Texas |
Spurs vs Pistons latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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