The Western Conference Play-In Tournament continues Wednesday, with the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Sacramento Kings to see who can put themselves in position for the No. 8 seed in the West playoffs.
Sacramento is a slight 5-point favorite at home, but I pass on the point spread and look for value in the NBA player props market.
Here are my best NBA picks for Mavericks vs. Kings on April 16.
Best Mavericks vs Kings props
Sabonis o6.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
Washington o5.5 rebounds (-140 at bet365)- Thompson u14.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Mavericks vs Kings player props for April 16
Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
Domantas Sabonis is the biggest cog in the Sacramento Kings’ offensive machine, playing a major role in the dribble-handoff sets and high pick-and-roll that Sacramento loves to run.
The versatile 7-footer averages six assists on the season, and I like him to surpass that number in this meeting with the Dallas Mavericks.
Sabonis is often a matchup nightmare for opposing bigs, as that offense pulls him away from the basket and draws larger defenders out of their comfort zone.
Dallas, however, has long and athletic bodies to throw at Sabonis, with Anthony Davis and Derek Lively II fine with coming out to guard him. That will force the ball out of Sabonis’ hands and make him more of a passer.
On the season, Sabonis boasted 9.5 potential assists per game. In the two matchups with the Mavs, that advanced stat jumped to 13.0 potential assists, and he finished with outputs of seven and eight dimes in his two contests versus Dallas.
The Mavericks aren’t a great defensive team, rated 24th since the All-Star break, and have a tough time defending handoff and pick-and-roll offenses. Dallas also allowed more than 27 assists per game on the year.
Sabonis’ projections for Wednesday either sit on or above the 6.5-assist total, and with the Over priced at +115, we’re getting good pop from this passing prop.
P.J. Washington Over 5.5 rebounds (-140 at bet365)
P.J. Washington is the glue guy for the Mavericks, doing whatever needs to be done to keep his team competitive.
Wednesday’s assignment for Washington will be rebounding, with Dallas’s bigs drawn to the outside to match up with Sabonis. The 6-foot-6 forward is active on the glass, averaging almost eight rebounds per game on the season.
That work on the boards has dipped a bit since the Mavericks made the trade for Anthony Davis, watching Washington’s rebounding average tick down to 6.1 boards over his past 15 games (he missed a lot of time since the ASG break with an ankle injury).
He’s shown flashes of that work on the glass in recent outings, snatching 6.7 rebounds in his last six contests. Projections for Wednesday’s Play-In tilt call for six or more boards, with some models north of seven rebounds.
Given those forecasts, the Over 5.5 rebounds from Washington should be priced higher than -200, which takes a little sting out of laying -140. I’ll also be sprinkling a little bit on the milestone market of 7+ rebounds at +140.
Klay Thompson Under 14.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Sorry Mavs fans, 2016 Klay Thompson ain't walking through that door.
Some sportsbooks have already cut Klay’s points prop down from 14.5 to 13.5 O/U for Wednesday. Taking the Under makes sense, but it is a risky wager considering how quickly Thompson can get hot from outside.
It’s really feast or famine from the veteran sharpshooter, who has obviously lost a step on both ends of the floor.
He’s failed to score 15 points or more in eight of his last 10 games, with his minutes taking a knock in the home stretch of the schedule. Scanning Thompson's game-to-game output, you regularly see 20-point efforts followed by single-digit scoring nights.
His two performances against Sacramento this year are a perfect example of that volatility.
Thompson dropped 19 points on the Kings in an overtime game back in February, with 15 of those coming from beyond the arc. However, Klay mustered only three points and attempted just four field goal attempts in 25 minutes versus Sacramento in March.
If Thompson comes out cold on offense or proves to be a liability on defense against the Kings, head coach Jason Kidd will not hesitate to take him out and replace him with the youthful legs of Max Christie, who has been eating up Thompson’s floor time and making the most of it.
Projections sit short of 15 points for Thompson, and with the market moving toward the Under, I’m grabbing a good price with the high side of this prop number.
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