The Battle of Ontario continues tonight with Game 4 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre..
The Leafs’ power play has powered the club to a 3-0 series lead, and my Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions expect it to remain red-hot in the nation’s capital. Thus, my NHL picks will be targeting Mitch Marner’s power play points prop on Saturday, April 26.
Who will win Maple Leafs vs Senators Game 4?
The Senators have their backs up against the wall tonight down 3-0 in the series to Toronto, and I’m just not sure they have the juice to avoid the sweep tonight.
The underlying numbers have supported Ottawa at 5-on-5 throughout the playoffs, but their inability to score at even-strength has hurt them as the Leafs have received terrific goaltending from Anthony Stolarz while the power play has been unstoppable.
I think the Buds get it done tonight, completing the sweep of the Battle of Ontario.
Maple Leafs vs Senators prediction
My Maple Leafs vs Senators pick: Mitch Marner Over 0.5 PPP (+175 at Sports Interaction)
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a chance to send their provincial rivals packing for the summer with a win tonight.
The margins have been fairly thin through three games with the Ottawa Senators actually winning the expected goals battle at 5-on-5, but the Leafs have gotten great goaltending from Anthony Stolarz to counteract it, and the power play has been a cheat code for Toronto to this point.
The Leafs are 5-for-9 on the man advantage, operating at a whopping 55.5% success rate.
The Senators just have not had an answer for the Leafs’ five-forward unit, which is making quick work of their PP opportunities, scoring at a 30.1 goals per 60 rate, the highest rate in the NHL by far.
Toronto’s power play was red-hot to end the season, operating at a 30% rate since January 15, and it has continued into to the postseason.
Leading the way for the Buds in the regular season was Mitch Marner, who had a team high 33 points on the man advantage, and it’s been a continuation of that success here in the postseason. Marner has factored in on four of the five total PPGs and leads the team with four power play points through three games.
His power play points total is set 0.5 tonight and the Over is paying +175. I think that’s incredible value considering the Leafs' PP has been unstoppable all series long and he’s a main cog in the action.
Additionally, the Senators haven’t been a disciplined team all season. They ranked 10th in penalties taken during the regular season and have taken the second-most through the playoffs thus far.
I’m expecting the Sens to play desperately tonight with a sweep impending. Desperation can sometimes lead to aggressive and costly decisions that could result in a few trips to the sin bin.
If this is the case, I have complete faith in the Leafs' PP to score for a fourth straight game, and there’s a good chance Marner factors in on the conversion.
Maple Leafs vs Senators same-game parlay (SGP)
Mitch Marner 2+ shots on goal
Auston Matthews 3+ shots on goal
Maple Leafs moneyline
For the first leg of our SGP, we’ll mirror our best bet and take Marner to record two or more shots on goal. Marner is averaging 2.13 shots per game this season and with blood in the water, I think he finds the urge to shoot the pill a little more tonight.
We’ll continue to bet on the shots market and take Auston Matthews to register 3+ shots on goal. The Leafs' captain averages 3.89 shots per game and has averaged four shots per contest in the series. Also, it’s time to close out the series, and I expect the captain to make his mark.
For the final leg of my SGP, I’ll take the Leafs on the moneyline. Toronto has proven to be the superior club, and the goaltending and special teams have been the difference. I don’t see why that changes in Game 4.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Senators odds
Maple Leafs vs Senators live odds
Maple Leafs vs Senators opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 | Ottawa -1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +100 | Ottawa -112
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Senators trend
The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 89 games (+13.55 Units / 10% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Senators.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Senators
| Location | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON |
| Date | Saturday, 4-26-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
Maple Leafs vs Senators latest injuries
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