The Los Angeles Dodgers (16-10) look to break out of a three-game losing streak as they host the Pittsburgh Pirates (11-16) on Saturday, April 26.
I take a closer look at Freddie Freeman’s total bases prop with my Pirates vs. Dodgers predictions. The first baseman has gotten the best of Pittsburgh hurler Mitch Keller in his career and forecasts for a productive day at the dish.
Let's dive in on my MLB picks for Saturday, April 26.
Pirates vs Dodgers prediction
My Pirates vs Dodgers best bet: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller probably saw this road date with the Los Angeles Dodgers on the calendar and immediately dreaded it.
The 29-year-old innings-eater has faced the Dodgers five times, resulting in a 7.54 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Here’s betting that the sixth time around doesn’t magically yield different results.
One L.A. bat who has consistently given him trouble is Freddie Freeman. The star first baseman is 8-for-15 with a .533/.588/.800 slash line against Keller in their respective careers, and only one of those 15 at-bats has resulted in a punchout.
Keller’s 4.18 ERA and 3.92 FIP don’t look too bad on the surface, but his 5.77 xERA is worrisome. The former second round pick doesn’t make batters miss (16.1% K rate, 11th percentile whiff rate) and has been hit around (fifth percentile xBA).
Freeman, meanwhile, remains at the top of his game.
The 35-year-old ranks in the 95th percentile or above in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. He has destroyed right-handed pitching in particular with a 219 wRC+ and .351/.405/.784 slash line.
It’ll be a somewhat chilly night at Chavez Ravine, but that’ll be offset by winds of 11.4 mph blowing out to center field throughout the contest.
Freeman has recorded 2+ total bases in six of his last nine games.
With a fortuitous matchup, Freeman’s -105 odds of recording multiple total bases on Saturday are too good to pass up as a best bet.
Pirates vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Michael Conforto Over 1.5 total bases
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
Prized offseason signee Roki Sasaki takes the mound for Dave Roberts’ squad.
It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for the Japanese flamethrower. He’s walking as many batters as he’s striking out (18.6%) and isn’t able to command the zone (7.3 walks per nine innings), make batters chase (ninth percentile chase rate), or suppress hard contact (21st percentile average exit velocity).
The 23-year-old ranks 146th in Pitching+ (84) out of 152 starting pitchers who have thrown 10+ innings. His stuff (90 Stuff+) and command (90 Location+) are both below water, and batters have teed off (.330 xBA and .612 xSLG) on the four-seamer that he throws over half the time (52.9%).
One other LA bat that stands to benefit against Keller is Michael Conforto, given the favorable platoon splits. Keller has a career .283 AVG and 1.55 WHIP against left-handed bats, and Conforto has bashed righties (127 wRC+ and .356 wOBA).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Dodgers odds
Pirates vs Dodgers live odds
Pirates vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +225 | Los Angeles -275
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (+110) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Pirates vs Dodgers trend
Freddie Freeman has recorded 2+ total bases in six of his last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Pirates vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 4-26-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet Pittsburgh, SportsNet LA |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Mitch Keller (1-2, 4.18 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Roki Sasaki (0-1, 3.20 ERA) |
Pirates vs Dodgers latest injuries
Pirates vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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