Has the NBA renamed the Play-In Tournament as the “Chicago Bulls Invitational” yet? They have been in the Tournament each of the last two seasons, now three in a row, winning their initial game before falling short of the playoffs the last two years.
That does not translate to this remade roster, but it does elicit a laugh.
The Miami Heat lost to this remade roster just a week ago, and looking at that game provides some value in some NBA picks before tip at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 16.
Best Heat vs Bulls props
Herro u2.5 threes (+100 at bet365)- Robinson u2.5 threes (-170 at bet365)
Buzelis o1.5 threes (-140 at bet365)
Heat vs Bulls player props for April 16
Tyler Herro Under 2.5 threes (+100 at bet365)
Tyler Herro went an ugly 2-of-7 from deep in that loss to the Chicago Bulls a week ago. Before anyone scoffs too heavily at late-season NBA results, realize that loss is a big part of why the Miami Heat are on the road in this do-or-die game.
Herro’s results were not that shocking against a defense that gives up relatively few looks from deep, and the ones available are generally bad. The Bulls have ranked No. 14 in rate of opponents’ shots coming from deep in the last month, those shots then falling just 34.7% of the time, No. 7 in the NBA since March 12.
When his shots are regularly contested, life is going to be more difficult. Factor in this Play-In game having a total 8.5 points lower than the game a week ago, and suddenly it becomes clear: open looks should be even scarcer.
Duncan Robinson Under 2.5 threes (-170 at bet365)
Duncan Robinson went an even worse 0-of-4 against the Bulls a week ago, one of three times in his last six games where he fell short of this prop. Go back to before his late-March absence, and Robinson has fallen short of this prop in five of his last eight games and seven of his last 12.
Those rates may not encourage a bet juiced to -170, but that faith in Chicago’s defense warrants it.
The Heat did not stress that defense a week ago, taking 35.9% of their shots from deep and making 36% of them, both significantly lower than Miami’s usuals, presumably because the Bulls were encouraging only bad looks.
Robinson does not see Herro’s minutes share, and in a game with these stakes, his minutes may be cut even further. The lower total, the opposing perimeter defense, and the likely fewer chances all justify this bet in spite of the juice.
Matas Buzelis Over 1.5 threes (-140 at bet365)
On the other side of the ball, Chicago stressed Miami’s defense last week. Both its rate of long-range attempts and percentage of makes tracked in line with Chicago’s quality 3-point shooting offense, and both outpaced Miami’s usual 3-point defense.
Admittedly, Miami’s usual 3-point defense is based entirely on limiting looks because opponents make 37.7% of them, the ninth-highest rate in the NBA in the last month.
Matas Buzelis contributed to those woes by making 3-of-5 shots from deep last week. The rookie has become a late-season starter in large part because of his shooting. Ignoring Chicago’s mailed-in season finale, Buzelis cleared this prop in five straight games to end the regular season and in 10 of his last 11 games.
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