Neither the Dallas Mavericks nor the New York Knicks are really enjoying life right now. Of course, they are suffering in different extremes. Dallas is lucky to have eight players healthy some nights, while New York is increasingly frustrated that Tom Thibodeau refuses to play more than eight players.
My Mavericks vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks focus on one Dallas veteran who should struggle more than most on the second night of a back-to-back. Tip comes at 7:30 ET on Tuesday, March 25.
Mavericks vs Knicks prediction
My best bet: Klay Thompson Under 14.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Klay Thompson has actually played rather well since Kyrie Irving tore his ACL, averaging 16.4 points in the 10 games since then, including the one in which Irving went down just nine minutes into the game. In fact, Thompson has cleared this meager prop in six of those 10 games.
One of those successes was even on the second night of a back-to-back, scoring 26 points in San Antonio. Thompson played 36 minutes in that four-point win, a confusing outlier.
In the 10 games since Irving’s injury, Thompson has cleared 30 minutes in five of them, but 34 minutes in just three. This entire season, he has played more than 35 minutes exactly once, that night at San Antonio. Asking that workload on the second night of a back-to-back of any 35-year-old garners notice, but asking it from one with Thompson’s last few years of injuries was a questionable choice from Jason Kidd.
Since then, Thompson has averaged 28 minutes and 49 seconds in five games along with 13.2 points. He has fallen short of this meager points prop in three of the five games, one of the exceptions coming against Philadelphia, the worst defense in the NBA since the All-Star Break.
Last night he managed just eight points on nine shots in nearly 25 minutes. Do not chalk up that single-digit output to Anthony Davis’s return: Davis took only nine shots. If anything, Thompson should have had less defensive attention on him.
Kidd presumably learned his lesson two weeks ago. Pushing Thompson right now is a bad choice, especially given the Dallas Mavericks may just want to lose. Do the Mavericks really want to force their way into the Play-In? Or would they rather secure a lottery pick and hope to strike it big like they once did with Dereck Lively II?
Thompson should have a shortened run tonight, particularly against a physical New York Knicks defense ranking No. 9 in rating since the All-Star Break. And any cutback on Thompson’s minutes should doom what has already been a steep points prop for him since that extended workload two weeks ago.
Mavericks vs Knicks same-game parlay
Klay Thompson Under 14.5 points
Klay Thompson Under 2.5 threes
Knicks team total Over 117.5
Doubting Thompson to hit three 3-pointers should pretty obviously fit in with doubting him to score 15 points. Since that 36-minute push against San Antonio, Thompson has gone 10-of-33 from deep, 30.3%. Nobody wishes for the four-time champion to continue to flounder like this, but do not be shocked if he struggles to regain his form in the season’s final three weeks.
Of all of Dallas’s problems, its defense may be the greatest of them. Nine of their 12 opponents in March cleared their team totals by an average of 8.7 points even when including the three exceptions.
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Mavericks vs Knicks odds
Mavericks vs Knicks live odds
Mavericks vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +7.5 | New York -7.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +250 | New York -310
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mavericks vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas opened as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday evening, and once Anthony Davis led the way to a win in Brooklyn, the line climbed to +9 and then +10 by the morning.
- Davis is officially questionable, but that climbing spread argues he will not play on the second night of this back-to-back.
- The total climbing from 222.5 to 225.5 in the morning also suggests Davis will be a game-time “out,” though the total did settle at 224.5 in midmorning.
Mavericks vs Knicks trend
Ten of 12 Mavericks games in March have gone Over their totals, in some part because Dallas opponents are scoring so easily. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Knicks.
How to watch Mavericks vs Knicks
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, MSG |
Mavericks vs Knicks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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