Following a 2-1 loss to the Jets last night in Winnipeg, the Arizona Coyotes will make an awkward trip West to Edmonton to take on the Oilers.
Edmonton sits as a massive -500 home favorite. which is 75 points shorter than it's been all season. Because of the potential blowout, there might be a little more value in the middle-six for the home side who could see an increase in ice time if this game gets out of hand.
Find out my best bets for the Coyotes vs. Oilers in my NHL picks and predictions for tonight's matchup.
Coyotes vs Oilers best odds
Coyotes vs Oilers picks and predictions
Despite being outshot by an average of over 10 per game, the Arizona Coyotes come into tonight with a 6-2 straight up record over their last eight games. They're also giving up 57 shot attempts per game compared to just 38 for themselves.
The Yotes are massive underdogs tonight, meaning the game script could come into play if this game does get one-sided — providing potential value for a player like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
RNH is playing on the second line currently, so if Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were to miss a few shifts later in the game, the veteran and PP1 forward could see a little more ice.
Even at his usual rate of 20 minutes per game, he is better than a coin flip to collect three or more shots tonight vs. the Coyotes. When he last played them in December, he had two goals and four shots in just 18 minutes of action.
Nugent-Hopkins is coming off a season-high seven shots last game vs. San Jose, with two of those coming on a man advantage where the center plays on the first unit. Arizona takes the third most penalties in hockey meaning the forward could see upwards of five or more minutes with extra ice space.
The Yotes have given up 40 shots in six of their last 10 games and Betano has the Edmonton team total shots set at 37.5. RNH averages 2.45 shots per game for a 7.5% shot share on the team. If the Oilers can generate 40 shots at that rate, the forward would finish with 3.0 shots.
Add in the advantageous shooting matchup and a possible bump in minutes with the stars getting a breather late, it could be another high-volume shooting night like Monday.
He’s priced as high as +105 which is implying 2.38 shots on goal, and I have this projected for 2.805 shots.
My best bet: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 2.5 shots on goal (+105)
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Coyotes vs Oilers moneyline analysis
As far as schedule spots go, this is as tough as it gets for the Coyotes. Very seldom do you ever see a team play in Winnipeg one night and then in Edmonton the next, as it’s a fair distance and a loss of an hour thanks to the time difference. Add in an Edmonton team that's scoring 4.69 goals per game over the last 30 days and has won eight of its last 10 games, and -500 on the moneyline might be warranted tonight.
On the season, Arizona has been +375 or longer twice and is 1-0-1 in those games with a +420 win in Toronto early in the season. It's also 3-8 SU in games when priced at +300 or longer, with wins over Toronto as mentioned, Carolina, and Boston. However, all those wins came before Christmas and the Yotes are 0-8 SU in their last eight games at +275 or longer.
There have only been 13 games this season with dogs of +375 or longer, including the two games with Arizona. In those 13 matches, the dog is 4-9 SU for +6.85 units. It has been profitable to blindly bet on these huge dogs and +375 is a great price point to make the move.
Edmonton has played great lately and Stuart Skinner has been good enough for them, but this Arizona team is playing its best hockey of the year.
Despite some success, the Yotes still sit dead last in Corsi percentage over the last month, as well as 31st in xGoal percentage, and 29th in high-danger chance percentage. They're winning, but the metrics aren't great.
The +375 is warranted as the underlying metrics are still showing a team being badly outplayed, but one thing that might get you on the dogs tonight is the play of likely starter Ivan Prosvetov. The rookie goalie has won all three of his starts this year and has a .952 SV% — albeit against Chicago, Vancouver, and Nashville.
Plenty of things are against the Coyotes tonight but +375 might be worth the ticket to ride — especially with a hot young goalie.
Coyotes vs Oilers Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 7.0 and has seen a 10-point move to the Under. The Oilers have been a very popular Over bet all season and are 20-8-2 to the Over in their last 30 games. They’ve made bettors nearly 18 units on straight Over bets this season with a 43-22-6 O/U record. So why the movement to the Under?
Firstly, Arizona doesn’t project to score much tonight. It played a 2-1 game in Winnipeg last night and the underlying metrics mentioned above indicate a team that should see some scoring regression soon.
The Coyotes are Bottom 10 in creating scoring chances this month despite averaging a healthy 3.27 goals per game (15th) and are also in the Bottom 5 in high-danger chances.
The goaltending tonight could also be a little better than expected. Skinner has obviously been supported by the league’s best offense but he has also held the opposition to two or fewer goals in seven of his last 12 games.
Not fantastic by any means, but with a tired Arizona team that's playing above expectations, Skinner can hold this offense to two or fewer tonight. The Arizona team total Under 2.5 is -160, implying roughly 2.28 goals.
The Oilers will have to solve a rookie goalie who has been electric since being called up earlier this month. Prosvetov is 3-0 and has stopped 100 of the 105 shots he’s faced. Arizona is struggling to suppress opposing shots on goal but the rookie has had no issues, going 2-0-1 to the Under in those three victories as well.
I don’t love the chances of two-way scoring and think there is a very small chance Prosvetov could steal the show tonight. I’m off the total but respect the market movement to the Under.
Coyotes vs Oilers betting trend to know
The Coyotes are 4-1 in their last five games overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Coyotes vs Oilers.
Coyotes vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 22, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, Sportsnet 1 |
Coyotes vs Oilers key injuries
