The NHL playoffs are in full swing with a pair of series openers and two more Game 2s on the docket Monday, April 21.
Tonight’s action opens with the Canadiens visiting the Capitals and wraps up with the Kings hosting the Oilers, and I’ve built a pair of parlays with my favorite NHL picks to cover the entire slate.
Today's best NHL Playoffs parlay: April 21
Capitals -1.5
Blues-Jets Under 5.5
Avalanche -1.5
Pick #1: Capitals -1.5
Sure, the Washington Capitals stalled down the stretch with a 4-7-1 record, but there was nothing to play for with the Metropolitan Division wrapped up. Alex Ovechkin broke the all-time goals record in early April, and multiple key defensemen rested for the Caps over the final weeks. No. 1 goalie Logan Thompson also missed the final seven regular-season games.
Simply put, Washington could afford to look ahead to Game 1 of the playoffs, while the Montreal Canadiens needed all 82 games to punch their postseason ticket.
The Caps also topped the Habs in Corsi For percentage, goals, and expected goals percentage, while also ranking higher in both special-teams metrics. So, with Washington also having more playoff experience and the last change advantage on home ice, I'm happy to back the Capitals on the puck line.
Pick #2: Blues-Jets Under 5.5
Goals vs. expected goals will be a hot topic over the coming weeks, and I’m a huge proponent of expected goals being a worthwhile metric over the long term. Still, the puck has to actually go over the goal line to count. With that in mind, there were eight goals in Game 1 between the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets, but just 4.74 expected goals, including only 2.82 at 5-on-5.
Winnipeg allowed the fewest goals per game during the regular season, with Jets No. 1 Connor Hellebuyck posting an elite .925 save percentage and league-high 41.6 goals saved above average. I expect him to bounce back from allowing three tallies on just 17 shots in the series opener.
Both teams are also missing a lot of offensive firepower, and defense was a key reason the Blues went on a 19-4-2 heater to finish the season. They allowed the second-fewest goals per game (2.28), and top goalie Jordan Binnington posted a solid .910 SV% during the run, too.
Pick #3: Avalanche -1.5
The Colorado Avalanche steamrolled the Dallas Stars in Game 1, and the Avs caved the Stars in with a dominant 61.7 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 and an even better 64.8% mark when adjusted for score and venue.
The Dallas trio of Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, and Mason Marchment was the only line of the four to win the possession and expected goals battles at 5-on-5, and Avs star Nathan MacKinnon put on a masterclass with two tallies, a primary assist, and six shots on eight attempts. MacKinnon also posted a 75.8 CF% and 86.1 xGF% at 5-on-5.
Dallas has been a mess since losing all-world defenseman Miro Heiskanen to a knee injury. The Stars allowed the most shots per game (32.8) and were a 5-on-5 disaster with a 30th-ranked 46.2 CF% while allowing the most expected goals per 60 minutes during the 32-game stretch.
Heiskanen isn’t jumping the boards Monday, and I’m expecting another monster night from No. 29 in white.
Capitals moneyline
Avalanche moneyline
Kings moneyline
Pick #1: Capitals moneyline
This is a significantly more conservative parlay, with the Capitals moneyline listed instead of the -1.5 puck line. As noted, Washington wasn’t firing on all cylinders down the stretch, and the Caps' team shooting and save percentages at 5-on-5 dropped drastically over the final 12 games.
Washington sported a league-high 103.3 PDO before dipping to a league-low 90.8 mark across those last 12 contests, and there’s potential that the poor puck luck carries in the postseason.
Additionally, the Canadiens have game-breaking talent, and No. 1 goalie Sam Montembeault can run hot. He won six of his final eight starts while posting a high-end .922 SV% and 2.11 GAA, after all.
Pick #2: Avalanche moneyline
Again, this is a conservative leg, with Game 2 as close to a must-win spot as there is for the Stars. Heading to Ball Arena in a 0-2 hole would put the Stars in a tough spot because the Avs went 26-12-3 on home ice during the regular season.
Plus, despite all the highlighted woes without No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen (knee), Dallas still went 18-9-5 without him while pacing the league in goals per game (3.69).
While Dallas isn’t going to roll over, the Stars are up against it with Colorado sporting a dominant 32-15-4 record with a +50 goal differential since Mackenzie Blackwood was acquired. The Avs have surrendered the second-fewest goals per game (2.39) during that stretch, too.
Pick #3: Kings moneyline
The Edmonton Oilers limped into the postseason, and with a suspect supporting cast and injuries, it’s difficult to truly forecast exactly how they’ll fare against a deep and difficult Los Angeles Kings lineup — and especially in Game 1 at Crypto.com Arena.
L.A. went 31-6-4 on home ice during the regular season, and the Oilers will be without key defenseman Mattias Ekholm (undisclosed). It’s a tremendous loss because Edmonton also has huge question marks in net. Oil No. 1 Stuart Skinner recorded an underwhelming .897 SV% during the regular season, and he wasn’t overly better with a .901 mark during last year's playoff run.
It’s just the opposite for Los Angeles. Darcy Kuemper is a Stanley Cup champion, and he finished up the regular season with a tidy .921 SV% and 2.02 GAA with 0.33 goals saved above average per 60 minutes to pave the way for L.A. to allow the second-fewest goals per game and per 60 at 5-on-5 on home ice.
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