There is an Eastern Conference tilt in the best game on Sunday’s NHL slate, with the Atlantic Division’s Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Metropolitan Division’s New Jersey Devils.
After Tampa won each of the first two matchups, these clubs square off for the third and final time this week.
Will the Lightning complete the sweep, or can the Devils pull off the road upset? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Devils vs Lightning on Sunday, March 19.
Devils vs Lightning best odds
Devils vs Lightning picks and predictions
Despite losing twice to the Tampa Bay Lightning this week — and entering this contest amidst a three-game losing streak — now is the time to buy low on the New Jersey Devils. While Tampa is obviously very good, it lags behind New Jersey in almost every key category.
The Bolts rank eighth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5, and 18th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). The Devils rank higher in both categories, as they sit fourth in xGF/60 at 5-on-5, and seventh in xGA/60.
These were especially prevalent in New Jersey’s 4-3 shootout loss to Tampa on Thursday, a game in which the Devils dominated from beginning to end, and trade deadline pickup Timo Meier scored twice. So why did they lose?
Enter goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. The all-world netminder performed brilliantly between the pipes in both matchups against New Jersey this week, going 2-0 with a .931 SV% and a 1.92 GAA.
While it is very likely that Vasilevskiy puts together yet another good outing, it is also likely that goaltender Vitek Vanecek can keep pace. Projected to start in the crease for the Devils in this contest, Vanecek boasts a .908 SV% and a 2.52 GAA through 43 appearances in net this season.
If Vanecek can hold his own, then New Jersey should regress back to the mean following a tough three-game losing streak, especially considering it possesses both a stronger offense and defense than the Bolts this season.
My best bet: Devils ML (+112 at BetRivers)
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Devils vs Lightning moneyline analysis
Both teams enter this contest on the second half of a back-to-back, which is good news for New Jersey. The Bolts are 0-7 in their last seven games playing on no rest, while the Devils are 4-0 in their last four games playing in the second half of a back-to-back.
While taking New Jersey at plus-money is good enough for me, the alternate puck line of -1.5 at +280 is not the worst longshot bet to attempt. Of the Devils’ last 11 wins, seven have come by at least a two-goal margin. On the flip side, four of Tampa’s last seven losses have come by at least two goals.
By far the greatest concern in backing New Jersey in this contest is Vasilevskiy. However, despite his brilliant play this week, Vasilevskiy’s career numbers against the Devils are not anything special. Through 10 career starts against New Jersey, he is 6-4 with a .906 SV%.
Devils vs Lightning Over/Under analysis
I would lean toward the Over in this contest, but I am more confident in just backing the Devils to snap their losing streak. Both clubs rank in the Top 8 of the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
Nico Hischier paces New Jersey in goals this month with four, though six other Devils skaters have three to their credit. Brayden Point and Alex Killorn have been their usual brilliant selves, potting six goals apiece in March, but Brandon Hagel is fresh off a hat-trick against the Canadiens and could be one to watch for tonight.
Meanwhile, Tampa’s biggest weakness is its thin blueline, which could especially prove problematic once again on zero days’ rest. The Bolts rank just 18th in the league in xGA/60 this season.
My main reason for not taking the Over is the recent play of Vasilevskiy. Entering this contest in great form, he is already 2-0 against the Devils this week alone with a .931 SV% and a 1.92 GAA.
While I think things will regress back to relative normalcy this game, I do not want to take the Over just in case he dominates once again.
Devils vs Lightning betting trend to know
The Lightning are 0-7 in their last seven games in the second half of a back-to-back. Find more NHL betting trends for Devils vs Lightning.
Devils vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, March 19, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NHL Network |
