The New Jersey Devils have won 10 straight and 13 of 14 but enter tonight’s road match vs. the Toronto Maple Leafs as +125 underdogs. This New Jersey team is playing to expectations and is deservedly one of the best in the league.
This could be the fastest team Toronto has seen all year and the Devils will put the Leafs' banged-up blue line to the test.
Find out who has the edge in my free NHL picks and predictions for Devils vs. Maple Leafs.
Devils vs Maple Leafs best odds
Devils vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
New Jersey defenseman Dougie Hamilton is riding a five-game point streak and has 14 points over 16 games. He is getting heavy minutes (second on the team in time on ice) and also leads the team in power play TOI.
He sits seventh in scoring from the blue line and considering guys like Adam Fox (-180) and Cale Makar (1.5 point total), who are just ahead of Hamilton in points, getting the New Jersey defenseman at -112 is a solid price.
Hamilton is also one of the highest-volume shooters on defense. Only three other rearguards have more shots on net than him and he sits second on the team in power-play points with eight.
Hamilton is a threat to get on the board with every shift and with such a good transition game, a secondary assist from 180 feet away could cash this Over.
My best bet: Dougie Hamilton Over 0.5 points (-112)
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Devils vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Devils and their 13-3 record are legit. At 5-on-5, they sit first in xGoal%, have scored more goals than any other team, are second in Corsi/Fenwick, and have the best goal differential at +18 over 16 games. They have solid depth up front and a blue line better than their opponent tonight.
During the winning streak, the Devils have closed at +145 in Edmonton and +150 in Calgary, so the books have adjusted the line slightly, but the Leafs closed as -145 favorites at home vs. the Penguins, making today’s line of +125 a little long for the visitors.
The Leafs will be without two of their best defensemen in TJ Brodie and Jake Muzzin, which is a big deal vs. the Devils. Toronto sits second in the league in turnovers and third in defensive zone giveaways and with New Jersey being one of the fastest teams with an elite transition game, the Devils could capitalize on Toronto’s mistakes.
We’ll likely see a goaltending matchup of Matt Murray (3.00 GAA, .900 SV%) and Vitek Vanecek (2.17 GAA, .915 SV%), giving New Jersey a slight advantage. Murray was solid in his last start vs. his former team but he’s also made just one start over the last 30 days. Vanecek has played slightly above expected but has benefitted from a team that allows the fewest shots on and gets the second most shots on net — a SOG difference of plus-13 per game.
Toronto has always played to their opponents this season but getting the Devils at +125 is a very good price for a team that has lost just once over its last 14 and has outscored its opponents by 29 goals over that stretch. New Jersey has also been able to win close games and is 6-0 SU in one-goal games this season.
Devils vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
At 5-11 O/U, Toronto is one of the best Under teams in hockey. The Leafs haven’t played in a game with eight or more goals all year and the offense has scored four or more goals just three times.
If Toronto can minimize the turnovers, we could see very few shots in this game. Both clubs sit in the Bottom 4 in shots allowed, with each team giving up 28 shots per game or fewer.
Power-play opportunities could also be limited as both teams sit in the bottom half in penalties taken and penalties drawn. The Leafs have seen more than two power-play opportunities just once over their last five games and are 2-for-9 with the man advantage over that stretch.
New Jersey has just been a great defensive team this year. They dominate possession, have allowed two or fewer goals in seven of their last 10, and sit first in expected goals against/60.
This total is teetering on seven but like the previous Toronto games, it will unlikely move off the 6.5. At plus money, the Under is a better play here.
Devils vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Devils are 6-0 in their last six games after allowing two or fewer goals in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Devils vs. Maple Leafs.
Devils vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, November 17, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MSG, Sportsnet Ontario |
Devils vs Maple Leafs key injuries
