The Vegas Golden Knights are treading water in the playoff race and coming off a disappointing loss to the Sabres yesterday. They’ll have to turn around quickly as they face the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena tonight, where the Pens are NHL betting favorites after facing some of the league’s best teams of late.
Were the Knights looking ahead to this contest after such a sad effort in an emotional game in Buffalo yesterday? Despite back-to-back losses, are the Pens in better form just because they’ve seen better competition over the last two weeks?
Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Penguins on Friday, March 11.
Golden Knights vs Penguins odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Pittsburgh opened as a -145 ML favorite and has since gained some steam, moving to -170 with a total of 6 leaning to the Over at the time of writing. These two teams met back in January, with the Pens winning 5-3 in Vegas as -105 dogs and a total of 6.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Golden Knights vs Penguins predictions
- Prediction: Penguins 3ML (+110)
- Prediction: Under 6 (+100)
- Best bet: Golden Knights TT Under 2.5 (+105)
Predictions made on 3/11/2022 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Golden Knights vs Penguins game info
• Location: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ATTSN-Pittsburgh, ATTSN-Nevada
Golden Knights vs Penguins betting preview
Key injuries
Golden Knights: Reilly Smith F (Questionable), Robin Lehner G (Out), Brett Howden F (Out), Brayden McNabb D (Out), Mark Stone F (Out), Alec Martinez D (Out), Mattias Janmark F (Out).
Penguins: Mike Matheson D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Golden Knights vs Penguins head-to-head record since 2017-18
Golden Knights: 3-4 SU, 24 goals for.
Penguins: 4-3 SU, 22 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1-1 in the Golden Knights’ last nine road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Penguins.
Golden Knights vs Penguins picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Jack Eichel revenge game was a no-show last night in Buffalo as the Golden Knights laid a dud and lost 3-1 to the lowly Sabres. The Knights are currently sitting in the seventh spot in the Western standings, but missing the playoffs is absolutely possible for this wounded team.
Peter DeBoer and his club have dealt with injuries all season but their infirmary is starting to fill up again. No. 1 netminder Robin Lehner left the road trip to get some tests and will miss some time, Reilly Smith is heading back home to test a knee injury, centers Brett Howden and Mattias Janmark are out, and defenseman Brayden McNabb and Alec Martinez won’t suit up. Those injuries cover every aspect of this team — including special teams — and severely handcuff this lineup at the worst possible time.
Backup Logan Thompson was recalled for the Golden Knights and could see himself get the start after Laurent Brossoit played yesterday. The rookie has just two starts to his NHL career, with one good start and another not-so-good one.
It might not matter how well he plays if this Vegas offense can't get things figured out. The Golden Knights have just four goals over their last three games and the worst part is that those games were against the Senators, Sabres, and Flyers — three Bottom-12 offenses.
Vegas will play a Pittsburgh team that is coming off a trio of games versus the Lightning, Hurricanes, and Panthers — three of the East’s best teams. Pittsburgh took three of a possible six points in those games and was extremely competitive, even with backup goalie Casey DeSmith getting one of those starts.
Tristan Jarry should get the nod tonight and has been up and down. He did hold the Rangers and Lighting to a single goal before giving up four to the Panthers in his last start. The struggling Vegas offense should help the netminder bounce back, as only three teams are scoring less than the Golden Knights since January 1.
Pittsburgh has the eighth-best point percentage since the new year and has played some great opponents of late. It has a Top-4 penalty kill and the market is moving in its favor. Vegas was likely amped up for that game versus the Sabres and it still fell short. Vegas is 4-7 SU in its last 11, is scoring just 2.18 goals per game, and could be starting a rookie goalie tonight. We’ll happily take the Pens in regulation.
Prediction: Penguins 3-way moneyline (+110)
Over/Under analysis
The Golden Knights are 7-3 when it comes to the Under over their last 10 games, and have been even more profitable to the Under on the road with a 1-9-1 O/U mark across their last 11 road games. The offense is scoring under 2.20 goals per game over the last 30 days, and has the worst road offense since January 1 at 2.09 goals per game. The power play is also hurting, having scored in just two of its last 25 opportunities.
The Pens are currently 1-3-1 O/U across their last five games, and are one of 10 teams who are scoring under 3.00 goals per game over the last 30 days. They’ve scored more than three goals just once over their last eight games and their 3.14 goals per game on home ice ranks outside the Top 15.
The Pittsburgh power play has gone back-to-back games without a goal and Evgeni Malkin hasn’t hit the scoresheet in two straight after a seven-game point streak. Sidney Crosby has been carrying this offense with 10 points over his last seven games, but the Pens haven’t gotten much help from the other lines over their last couple of games versus the Hurricanes and Panthers.
Thompson stopped 35 of 36 shots in his second NHL start versus the Sharks back on February 20. He isn’t the best name to ride an Under with, but the Knights have been holding their opponents to 2.76 goals per game since January 1 and many of those starts were with fellow backup Laurent Brossoit. This is a group of good defensive forwards who can make up for the losses on the blue line.
The price of the Under has fallen at some books but at +100 for the Under 6 still widely available, that’s where our lean lies. We prefer putting our money with the Pens, but don’t expect to see much scoring from the visitors tonight.
Prediction: Under 6 (+100)
Best bet
The Golden Knights are coming off a huge game last night and they couldn’t even manage two goals against the Sabres. We aren’t expecting this team to move on so quickly from that game, especially with all the extra media attention that Eichel brought along with it after his comments about the fans in Buffalo.
This is an offense that has become dormant and the injury to Smith doesn’t help either. Vegas has scored two or fewer regulation goals in seven of its last 11 road games and has to face one of the best PK teams in hockey tonight.
Jarry can shut teams down and with the Penguins having played some great opponents of late, they come into this matchup in much better form. Were betting against this struggling Vegas offense.
Pick: Golden Knights team total Under 2.5 (+105)
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