The Toronto Maple Leafs showed they can win without Auston Matthews and with rookie goalie Erik Kallgren in a 4-0 win versus Dallas on Tuesday, but tonight's matchup versus the Carolina Hurricanes will pose a much bigger challenge.
Can the Leafs steal another two points from Freddy Anderson and the Canes despite being home underdogs? With more tape on Kallgren, do the Hurricanes have a better advantage than the Stars did on Tuesday? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs.
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This game opened as a pick ‘em but has moved slightly to Carolina at -115 on the moneyline with a total of 6.0 leaning to the Over. These two teams met back in late January with the Leafs winning 4-3 in extra time as -135 home favorites with a closing total of 6.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs predictions
Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 10:17 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Key injuries
Hurricanes: Tony DeAngelo D (Questionable), Brendan Smith D (Questionable).
Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews F (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Out), Jack Campbell G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record since 2017-18
Hurricanes: 5-5 SU, 40 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 5-5 SU, 39 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs.
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs surprised the hockey world with a dominant 4-0 win over the Dallas Stars on Tuesday as -135 home favorites. They played great at both ends and picked up the win without the league’s leading goal scorer and a rookie goalie.
Erik Kallgren made 35 saves for the shutout in his NHL starting debut while the top line of Michael Bunting-John Tavares-Mitchell Marner played solidly without Auston Matthews.
Toronto won the game and dominated the Xgoal metrics, but can it finally put together a pair of great outings against a tough matchup in the Hurricanes tonight.
Carolina has the best winning percentage in the Eastern Conference and is 19-6-4 since January 1. It recently saw its four-game winning streak snapped in a 4-2 loss to the Penguins in which it outshot Pittsburgh 43 to 20.
The Canes are one of the best shot-suppressing teams in hockey and goalie Frederik Andersen made 28 saves on 29 shots in his first game back from a minor injury versus the Flyers on Saturday, so his health is not in question. Carolina not having to face Matthews is huge as the Leafs' centerman had two goals in the last meeting between these teams.
Andersen sits second in the league in wins with 30 and has the second-best SV% behind future Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin. Andersen played well in his only start versus his former team making 28 saves in an OT loss and owns a .929 SV% over his last 19 starts.
He has been arguably one of the most consistent goaltenders this season and is the biggest difference maker in this matchup.
Price is very important in this handicap as well. Dallas closed as +120 underdogs on Tuesday and we feel the Hurricanes should be a little longer on the ML here and we’ve started to see the market agree with us.
The biggest need here for the Leafs is another impressive start from Kellgren. He’s a former seventh-round pick and carried a 3.02 GAA across 26 AHL games before making that first NHL start. In that game, the Stars threw a ton of pucks at him but they finished with under 3.00 xgoals and didn’t create a ton of quality scoring chances.
The Leafs have moved the Russian Bear, Ilya Lyubushkin, to a pairing with Morgan Rielly which is the right move for the defense but this is still a Toronto blue line that is not physical (or big) in the bottom-four and face a Carolina offense that can play the skill game as well as the tough stuff.
The Canes have killed 12 of their last 13 penalties and sport the league’s best penalty kill. They might not be too busy Thursday as the Leafs draw the second-fewest penalties in the league and have had just six opportunities over their last three games.
Beating the Hurricanes at 5-on-5 is not an easy task as they sit in the Top-5 in goal percentage, Corsi percentage, and expected goal differential.
Getting the Canes at -115 against a team with its No. 4 goalie and missing its leading scorer is a great price. If Dallas had won that game on Tuesday, this line could be looking differently.
Prediction: Hurricanes moneyline (-115)
Over/Under analysis
The Hurricanes have a little more tape on Kellgren and likely won't be firing low-danger shots at him as the Stars did. Carolina is known as one of the best offensive teams in hockey but isn’t as tight on the road as at home.
It is averaging a total of 5.48 goals per game at home compared to 5.96 total goals per game on the road. This is an offense that sits in the Top-10 in shots on net and goals per game since the calendar turned 2022 while Toronto will be facing a familiar face in Andersen.
Andersen played five seasons with the Maple Leafs and although he doesn’t have to face Matthews, he will be seeing a team that knows his tendencies and beat him four times in the last meeting. Mitch Marner finished that game with two goals and an assist.
The Hurricanes’ offense should be able to do more damage than the Stars did versus a rookie netminder, and the Bud's also struggle with consistency and have seldomly carried over good performances in back-to-back games.
As we saw with Tuesday’s total, this 6.0 could very well close at 6.5. The Dallas game finished with nearly 9.00 expected goals as the Bud’s offense didn’t struggle without their leading scorer.
The Hurricanes have the league’s best penalty kill but we can’t sell the Leafs short here, either, as they have the No. 1 power play and found the back of the net vs. the Stars.
Toronto knows Andersen, and Kellgren could fall back to earth after posting a shutout in his first NHL start. Both teams managed three goals in the previous meeting and we could see the same thing happen again tonight. With the Leafs’ issues on the blue line and inexperience in net, this total should be 6.5.
Prediction: Over 6 (-125)
Best bet
As much as we like the Canes in this one, we like value even more, and getting John Tavares to score at +220 is a real treat. He closed at +135 in his last game and scored versus the Stars thanks to a promotion to the top line — a top line that managed four goals against Caolina in the last meeting.
The Michael Bunting-John Tavares-William Nylander line finished with an 89% xgoal percentage in Tuesday’s game and the line had 14 shot attempts compared to five against and spent the majority of the time in the offensive zone.
The Mitch Marner effect is real and Tavares is one of the best front-net presence guys in the league and has an opportunity that isn’t reflective in his +220 AGS price.
Pick: Tavares anytime goal (+220)
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